Exotic
A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.
Price
$3.97
Advertised RTP
92.50%
EV $3.67 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.55%
15.9K openings, odds method
Variance
11.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 27
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
skinclub:apiv2/cases/exotic, 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:47 UTC | $3.97 | 92.50% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | $3.94 | 92.52% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $3.95 | 92.54% | 26 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $3.96 | 92.46% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $3.94 | 92.59% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $3.95 | 92.46% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $3.96 | 92.53% | 26 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $3.97 | 92.51% | 26 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $7.72 | 92.50% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $7.78 | 92.50% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $7.76 | 92.51% | 23 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $7.76 | 92.56% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $7.77 | 92.53% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $7.78 | 92.53% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $7.78 | 92.54% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $7.76 | 92.52% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $7.78 | 92.54% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $7.80 | 92.47% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $7.80 | 92.49% | 23 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $7.74 | 92.49% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $7.76 | 92.54% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $7.76 | 92.51% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $7.81 | 92.45% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $7.73 | 92.55% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $7.73 | 92.45% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $7.75 | 92.50% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $7.73 | 92.55% | 23 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $7.74 | 92.46% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $7.70 | 92.47% | 23 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $7.70 | 92.47% | 23 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 15.0%covert 1.3%restricted 5.8%classified 5.9%mil spec 27.6%Legendary 2.0%Restricted 7.5%Rare 7.7%#4b69ff 27.2%best hit $663 (85.16x)