Mid

A case on Skin.club (Battle cases), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$10.10

Advertised RTP

92.49%

EV $9.34 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.52%

86.5K openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.63%±2.0118.2K openings

7 days

92.85%±1.0471.8K openings

30 days

92.52%±0.9586.5K openings

since tracking started

92.52%±0.9586.5K openings

91.0%93.8%96.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18.2K	93.63%±2.01	+1.2σ	odds
7d	71.8K	92.85%±1.04	+0.7σ	odds
30d	86.5K	92.52%±0.95	+0.1σ	odds
All	86.5K	92.52%±0.95	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 86.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$173	1.9%	82	86.6	0.95×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 833	$88.59	1.1%	102	103.9	0.98×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 833	$79.86	1.0%	157	103.9	1.51×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 455	$62.78	1.5%	131	190.5	0.69×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 294	$56.08	2.0%	2,344	294.4	7.96×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$43.02	18.4%	1,465	3463.9	0.42×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 25	$34.00	14.6%	4,463	3463.9	1.29×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 17	$27.01	17.3%	5,237	5195.8	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 17	$26.01	16.7%	5,243	5195.8	1.01×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$8.29	5.3%	4,200	5195.8	0.81×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$6.83	5.8%	6,806	6927.8	0.98×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 13	$4.72	4.0%	6,959	6927.8	1.00×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 12	$2.59	2.2%	7,071	7014.4	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$2.39	2.6%	8,764	8659.7	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	11.0%	$1.67	2.0%	9,558	9525.7	1.00×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	13.0%	$1.54	2.1%	11,190	11257.6	0.99×
SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	15.0%	$0.81	1.3%	12,825	12989.5	0.99×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/mid_case, 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red< blank >$10.10$27.032.68x11s

AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff$10.08$2.590.26x16s

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$10.08$1.560.15x16s

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rarem0lesty$10.08$1.560.15x16s

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red< blank >$10.08$27.032.68x16s

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$10.08$1.560.15x22s

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red$10.08$27.032.68x22s

SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specm0lesty$10.08$0.820.08x22s

AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff< blank >$10.08$2.590.26x22s

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare$10.08$1.560.15x55s

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$10.10	92.49%	17
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$10.09	92.49%	17
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$10.07	92.48%	17
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$10.03	92.52%	17
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$10.03	92.47%	17
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$10.06	92.50%	17
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$10.08	92.51%	17
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$10.05	92.53%	17
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$10.06	92.53%	17
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$11.21	92.49%	17
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$11.24	92.46%	17
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$11.22	92.54%	17
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$11.26	92.52%	17
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$11.29	92.50%	17
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$11.27	92.46%	17
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$11.28	92.49%	17
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$11.26	92.51%	17
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$11.23	92.49%	17
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$11.20	92.47%	17
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$11.21	92.47%	17
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$11.16	92.52%	17
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$11.19	92.54%	17
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$11.17	92.48%	17
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$11.21	92.46%	17
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$11.15	92.47%	17
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$11.06	92.52%	17
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$11.17	92.49%	17
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$11.19	92.48%	17
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$11.12	92.53%	17
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$11.12	92.46%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.8%classified 0.1%Ancient 4.0%red 6.0%Legendary 14.0%restricted 24.0%#8847ff 8.1%violet 11.0%Rare 13.0%mil spec 15.0%best hit —