Rainbow

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price

$3.02

Advertised RTP

92.41%

EV $2.79 from 41 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.59%

30.2K openings, odds method

Variance

14.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 29

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

93.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

99.78%±14.542,547 openings

7 days

91.19%±4.7323.7K openings

30 days

92.59%±4.2030.2K openings

since tracking started

92.59%±4.2030.2K openings

84.5%99.8%115.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,547	99.78%±14.5	+1.0σ	odds
7d	23.7K	91.19%±4.73	−0.6σ	odds
30d	30.2K	92.59%±4.20	+0.0σ	odds
All	30.2K	92.59%±4.20	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$397	1.4%	1	3.0	0.33×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$303	2.2%	7	6.0	1.16×
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$238	1.7%	3	6.0	0.50×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$195	1.4%	7	6.0	1.16×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$138	1.0%	10	6.0	1.66×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$124	1.3%	20	9.1	2.21×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$118	2.5%	15	18.1	0.83×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$116	2.5%	17	18.1	0.94×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,667	$114	2.4%	16	18.1	0.88×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,667	$111	2.4%	21	18.1	1.16×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$92.33	2.3%	28	21.1	1.32×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$84.75	2.1%	20	21.1	0.95×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$82.58	2.4%	9	24.2	0.37×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$66.97	1.9%	22	24.2	0.91×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,250	$51.60	1.5%	27	24.2	1.12×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$46.42	1.3%	22	24.2	0.91×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$44.06	1.3%	29	24.2	1.20×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$41.68	1.5%	33	30.2	1.09×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,000	$40.31	1.4%	29	30.2	0.96×
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$38.99	1.4%	47	30.2	1.56×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$32.82	1.2%	63	30.2	2.09×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,000	$32.21	1.2%	25	30.2	0.83×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,000	$26.00	0.9%	137	30.2	4.54×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$21.50	2.3%	37	90.6	0.41×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$18.77	2.0%	81	90.6	0.89×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$16.15	1.7%	92	90.6	1.02×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$15.37	2.2%	88	120.8	0.73×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$12.79	2.7%	210	181.2	1.16×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$10.58	2.3%	140	181.2	0.77×
FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 167	$9.30	2.0%	182	181.2	1.00×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 167	$7.15	1.5%	150	181.2	0.83×
G3SG1 \| Flux (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$6.86	1.5%	202	181.2	1.11×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 83	$6.36	2.7%	365	362.4	1.01×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 30	$1.98	2.3%	2,658	996.5	2.67×
AUG \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	10.0%	$1.63	5.8%	2,999	3019.7	0.99×
CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$1.55	5.6%	3,480	3019.7	1.15×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	10.0%	$1.50	5.4%	495	3019.7	0.16×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	14.7%	$1.24	6.5%	4,140	4439.0	0.93×
AUG \| Random Access (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	12.0%	$1.20	5.2%	4,240	3623.6	1.17×
Galil AR \| Signal (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$0.93	5.0%	5,256	4529.6	1.16×
SSG 08 \| Acid Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	18.0%	$0.60	3.9%	4,774	5435.5	0.88×

Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/rainbow, 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert$3.02$397131.4x3h

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covertwitwear$3.02$397131.4x4h

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$3.14$30396.60x8d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$3.13$30396.91x8d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertAgent007-Jari$3.04$30399.77x1d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertAgent007-Jari$3.03$303100.1x1d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertKek24$3.17$30395.68x2d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$3.15$30195.42x6d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert𝙹𝙺𝟷𝟼$3.17$30194.81x5d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$3.15$30195.41x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedPenguin Enjoyer 2025$3.02$15.495.13x5m

AUG | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · RarePenguin Enjoyer 2025$3.02$1.630.54x5m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$3.02$1.230.41x5m

SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil specPenguin Enjoyer 2025$3.02$0.610.20x6m

AUG | Random Access (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical$3.02$1.200.40x6m

Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedPenguin Enjoyer 2025$3.02$15.495.13x6m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical$3.02$1.230.41x6m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Exposure (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalPenguin Enjoyer 2025$3.02$1.230.41x6m

CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$3.02$1.570.52x6m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalPenguin Enjoyer 2025$3.02$1.500.50x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.41%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC	$3.02	92.41%	41
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC	$3.02	92.52%	41
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC	$3.03	92.39%	41
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$3.03	92.38%	41
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$3.02	92.56%	41
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$3.04	92.48%	41
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$3.03	92.57%	41
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$3.15	92.55%	40
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$3.16	92.56%	40
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$3.15	92.57%	40
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC	$3.17	92.54%	40
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC	$3.17	92.39%	40
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC	$3.17	92.41%	40
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC	$3.17	92.63%	40
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC	$3.16	92.49%	40
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC	$3.17	92.49%	40
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC	$3.17	92.56%	40
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC	$3.15	92.61%	40
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC	$3.12	92.59%	40
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC	$3.15	92.42%	40
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC	$3.15	92.50%	40
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$3.17	92.54%	40
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$3.14	92.57%	40
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$3.16	92.43%	40
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$3.16	92.37%	40
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$3.15	92.49%	40
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC	$3.15	92.51%	40
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC	$3.15	92.47%	40
4 Nov, 16:30 UTC	$3.13	92.57%	40
4 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$3.13	92.46%	40

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.8%red 0.1%Legendary 0.2%classified 4.5%restricted 25.1%Ancient 0.1%Mythical 40.6%#d32ee6 0.6%Rare 10.0%mil spec 18.0%best hit $397 (131.4x)