SC Fun

A case on Skin.club (Our Special), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.

Price
$6.68
Advertised RTP
92.47%
EV $6.18 from 39 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.45%
28.1K openings, odds method
Variance
4.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 16
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
93.68%±7.792,999 openings
7 days
92.78%±3.1921K openings
30 days
93.45%±2.7928.1K openings
since tracking started
93.45%±2.7928.1K openings
85.0%93.5%102.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2,99993.68%±7.79+0.3σodds
7d21K92.78%±3.19+0.6σodds
30d28.1K93.45%±2.79+1.0σodds
All28.1K93.45%±2.79+1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values39 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,882$2580.7%84.81.67×
P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$2420.7%194.83.97×
★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 5,882$1960.5%64.81.25×
★ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 2,326$1541.1%1412.11.16×
Desert Eagle | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 1,923$1421.2%1014.60.68×
AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 1,449$1341.5%1319.40.67×
M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 1,235$1211.6%4522.81.97×
M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 1,053$1181.8%1026.70.37×
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 833$1142.2%4533.81.33×
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 714$1082.5%1139.40.28×
P2000 | Fire Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 667$87.322.1%10642.22.51×
R8 Revolver | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 667$81.312.0%1442.20.33×
★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 435$79.803.0%1364.80.20×
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 385$71.143.0%4673.20.63×
★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 385$56.952.4%5473.20.74×
AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 303$53.602.9%2392.90.25×
USP-S | Road Rash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 286$51.102.9%6998.50.70×
AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 286$37.712.1%11898.51.20×
AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 286$36.862.1%11098.51.12×
M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient1 in 286$32.211.8%18398.51.86×
M4A4 | Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 145$30.673.4%152194.30.78×
AWP | Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 115$30.214.3%236245.00.96×
Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 71$20.164.6%113394.20.29×
StatTrak™ P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 59$14.323.9%555478.71.16×
P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 38$12.695.3%1,426732.11.95×
UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 38$12.495.3%194732.10.26×
M4A1-S | Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 29$9.055.1%848985.50.86×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 29$7.774.4%892985.50.91×
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 29$5.273.0%1,102985.51.12×
Desert Eagle | Naga (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 19$3.773.2%1,2681464.20.87×
AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 16$3.573.5%1,8281717.61.06×
MP9 | Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 14$3.463.9%4951942.80.25×
SG 553 | Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 14$2.422.7%2,1371942.81.10×
AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 13$2.022.5%2,2542111.81.07×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare1 in 13$1.722.2%2,4342196.21.11×
Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 11$1.422.0%2,7482449.71.12×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Off World (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 11$0.971.4%2,7272449.71.11×
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 11$0.620.9%3,0742449.71.25×
Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 10$0.360.6%2,7572733.81.01×
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from skinclub:apiv2/cases/scfun, 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.47%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 14:43 UTC$6.6892.47%39
11 Nov, 08:39 UTC$6.6892.48%39
11 Nov, 02:35 UTC$6.6892.44%39
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$6.6892.50%39
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$6.6992.53%39
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$6.7092.48%39
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$6.7092.57%39
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$5.9992.52%31
9 Nov, 14:11 UTC$6.0292.55%31
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC$6.0392.51%31
9 Nov, 02:03 UTC$6.0592.54%31
9 Nov, 01:54 UTC$6.0592.53%31
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC$6.0592.43%31
8 Nov, 23:40 UTC$6.0592.49%31
8 Nov, 17:36 UTC$6.0492.53%31
8 Nov, 11:31 UTC$6.0592.49%31
8 Nov, 05:27 UTC$6.0392.47%31
7 Nov, 23:23 UTC$6.0492.57%31
7 Nov, 17:19 UTC$6.0592.50%31
7 Nov, 11:15 UTC$6.0592.49%31
7 Nov, 05:10 UTC$6.0392.44%31
6 Nov, 23:06 UTC$6.0592.49%31
6 Nov, 17:02 UTC$6.0192.56%31
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$6.0492.45%31
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$6.0392.54%31
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$6.0192.55%31
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$5.9892.56%31
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$5.9592.56%31
5 Nov, 04:38 UTC$5.9392.54%31
4 Nov, 22:34 UTC$5.9492.53%31
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 17.6%covert 2.4%Immortal 0.0%red 0.1%extraordinary 0.2%restricted 11.6%Ancient 0.4%pink 2.6%Mythical 28.4%mil spec 21.9%#8847ff 6.9%Rare 7.8%best hit —