Triple Fade
A case on Skin.club (Complete Gear), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Skin.club's own item price.
Price
$2.44
Advertised RTP
92.51%
EV $2.26 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.52%
32.1K openings, odds method
Variance
27.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32.1K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 10,000 | $396 | 1.8% | 11 | 3.2 | 3.42× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 3,333 | $279 | 3.7% | 10 | 9.6 | 1.04× |
| M4A1-S | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic | 1 in 3,333 | $216 | 2.9% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.93× |
| M4A1-S | Fade (Factory New)weapon · epic | 1 in 3,333 | $172 | 2.3% | 8 | 9.6 | 0.83× |
| ★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Field-Tested)gloves · epic | 1 in 333 | $159 | 21.1% | 78 | 96.4 | 0.81× |
| Sir Bloody Miami Darryl | The Professionalsagent · master | 1 in 167 | $69.61 | 18.5% | 177 | 192.7 | 0.92× |
| Charm | Hungry Eyescharm · Legendary | 14.0% | $2.62 | 16.2% | 4,513 | 4496.5 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Hello MP7sticker · Rare | 85.0% | $0.89 | 33.5% | 27,312 | 27300.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Skin.club's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
skinclub:apiv2/cases/triple-fade, 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.51%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:39 UTC | $2.44 | 92.51% | 8 |
| 11 Nov, 02:35 UTC | $2.45 | 92.33% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $2.45 | 92.66% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $2.48 | 92.46% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $2.47 | 92.37% | 8 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $2.36 | 92.57% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $2.34 | 92.56% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 14:11 UTC | $2.34 | 92.66% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 08:07 UTC | $2.35 | 92.48% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 01:54 UTC | $2.36 | 92.41% | 8 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $2.36 | 92.40% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 23:40 UTC | $2.36 | 92.58% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 17:36 UTC | $2.35 | 92.57% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 11:31 UTC | $2.37 | 92.54% | 8 |
| 8 Nov, 05:27 UTC | $2.36 | 92.41% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 23:23 UTC | $2.34 | 92.62% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 17:19 UTC | $2.33 | 92.39% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $2.33 | 92.57% | 8 |
| 7 Nov, 05:10 UTC | $2.33 | 92.53% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 23:06 UTC | $2.34 | 92.58% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 17:02 UTC | $2.34 | 92.31% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $2.34 | 92.58% | 8 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.35 | 92.39% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $2.35 | 92.34% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $2.35 | 92.47% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $2.34 | 92.68% | 8 |
| 5 Nov, 04:38 UTC | $2.35 | 92.32% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 22:34 UTC | $2.34 | 92.69% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $2.34 | 92.52% | 8 |
| 4 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $2.34 | 92.53% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%epic 0.4%master 0.6%Legendary 14.0%Rare 85.0%best hit $416 (177.1x)