Midas Touch
A case on 500 Casino (featured), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is 500 Casino's own item price converted from BUX at the rate on the site page.
Price
$102.88
171,400 BUX
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $92.59 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.71%
112 openings, odds method
Variance
19.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 47
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
84.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 112 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 112 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | s1mple (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 333 | $6,989 11,643,307 BUX | 22.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary | 1 in 118 | $2,037 3,393,608 BUX | 18.7% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $1,543 2,570,921 BUX | 16.7% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $197 327,885 BUX | 12.8% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $165 275,373 BUX | 13.3% | 9 | 8.3 | 1.08× |
| Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 13.4% | $55.19 91,946 BUX | 8.0% | 13 | 15.0 | 0.87× |
| StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 71.0% | $10.37 17,276 BUX | 8.0% | 81 | 79.5 | 1.02× |
Values are 500 Casino's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
500-casino:cases/list, 12 Nov, 04:37 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary$103171,400 BUX$2,0373,393,608 BUX19.80x
Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary$103171,400 BUX$2,0373,393,608 BUX19.80x
Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary$103171,400 BUX$2,0373,393,608 BUX19.80x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$103171,400 BUX$10.3717,276 BUX0.10x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$103171,400 BUX$10.3717,276 BUX0.10x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$103171,400 BUX$165275,373 BUX1.61x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedKronerkongen$103171,400 BUX$55.1991,946 BUX0.54x
Sticker | kennyS (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary$103171,400 BUX$2,0373,393,608 BUX19.80x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$103171,400 BUX$10.3717,276 BUX0.10x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$103171,400 BUX$10.3717,276 BUX0.10x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertKronerkongen$103171,400 BUX$197327,885 BUX1.91x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$103171,400 BUX$10.3717,276 BUX0.10x
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$103171,400 BUX$10.3717,276 BUX0.10x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:38 UTC | $103 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedExtraordinary 0.3%extraordinary 0.9%covert 14.4%restricted 84.4%best hit $2,037 (19.80x)