10% BOOMBOX

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$9.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $7.88 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.37%

23.6K openings, odds method

Variance

11.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 37

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

92.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.58%±13.952,239 openings

7 days

87.83%±4.7118.5K openings

30 days

88.37%±4.1123.6K openings

since tracking started

88.37%±4.1123.6K openings

76.0%90.5%105.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,239	90.58%±14.0	+0.4σ	odds
7d	18.5K	87.83%±4.71	+0.1σ	odds
30d	23.6K	88.37%±4.11	+0.4σ	odds
All	23.6K	88.37%±4.11	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23.7K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,123	1.4%	4	2.4	1.69×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 323	$233	9.2%	59	73.3	0.80×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 244	$175	9.1%	74	97.0	0.76×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 526	$166	4.0%	0	44.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$155	3.0%	0	35.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 625	$152	3.1%	0	37.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 588	$147	3.2%	0	40.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 357	$137	4.9%	0	66.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 769	$129	2.1%	0	30.7	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 179	$128	9.1%	101	132.4	0.76×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 313	$105	4.3%	0	75.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 250	$93.39	4.7%	0	94.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 455	$83.95	2.3%	0	52.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$80.83	3.3%	0	75.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 357	$74.67	2.7%	0	66.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 256	$72.97	3.6%	0	92.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 270	$65.16	3.1%	0	87.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 526	$64.37	1.6%	0	44.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$60.74	3.3%	0	101.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$59.09	3.2%	0	101.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$54.85	3.5%	0	118.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 256	$44.56	2.2%	0	92.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 182	$37.79	2.6%	0	130.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 179	$37.41	2.7%	0	132.4	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	17.0%	$1.76	3.8%	2,742	4011.2	0.68×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	35.9%	$0.46	2.1%	9,089	8490.7	1.07×
Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	39.4%	$0.41	2.1%	9,707	9323.2	1.04×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/10-boombox, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$9.00$1,135126.1x1d

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$9.00$1,128125.3x20h

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$9.00$1,111123.5x6d

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$9.00$1,078119.8x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$9.00$0.460.05x6m

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$9.00$1.760.20x6m

Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$9.00$0.410.05x6m

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blueDeadpanzzz_$9.00$1.760.20x6m

AK-47 | Neon Riderweapon · red$9.00$62.006.89x6m

SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$9.00$0.460.05x6m

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Field-Tested)weapon · blue$9.00$1.760.20x6m

SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violetDeadpanzzz_$9.00$0.460.05x6m

AK-47 | Neon Riderweapon · red$9.00$62.006.89x6m

SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$9.00$0.460.05x6m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$9.00	87.50%	27
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$9.00	87.70%	27
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$9.00	87.50%	27
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$9.00	87.70%	27
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$9.00	87.19%	27
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$9.00	88.01%	27
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$9.00	87.04%	27
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$9.00	87.42%	27
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$9.00	87.04%	27
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$9.00	87.42%	27
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$9.00	87.96%	27
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$9.00	86.99%	27
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$9.00	87.93%	27
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$9.00	87.73%	27
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$9.00	87.60%	27
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$9.00	87.10%	27
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$9.00	87.93%	27
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$9.00	87.99%	27
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$9.00	87.63%	27

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.8%sunny 0.3%classified 1.2%Ancient 0.4%blue 17.0%violet 75.3%best hit $1,135 (126.1x)