AK-47

A case on Casehug (CS2 WEAPONS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$6.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $5.25 from 141 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.83%

21K openings, odds method

Variance

19.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

81.16%±17.732,359 openings

7 days

89.22%±6.5518.4K openings

30 days

88.83%±6.0921K openings

since tracking started

88.83%±6.0921K openings

63.0%81.3%99.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,359	81.16%±17.7	−0.7σ	odds
7d	18.4K	89.22%±6.55	+0.5σ	odds
30d	21K	88.83%±6.09	+0.4σ	odds
All	21K	88.83%±6.09	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values141 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 21.1K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$5,630	2.1%	1	0.4	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 100,000	$398	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 100,000	$383	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$295	0.2%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 100,000	$268	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$200	0.2%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$193	0.1%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 16,667	$189	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$172	0.1%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 50,000	$168	0.1%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$155	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$152	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$147	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$131	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$126	0.2%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$124	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 33,333	$122	0.1%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$122	0.2%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$115	0.2%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$115	0.1%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$104	0.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$93.95	0.1%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 25,000	$93.57	0.1%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$88.63	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$83.95	0.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50,000	$81.12	0.0%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$74.10	0.2%	0	2.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 6,667	$71.37	0.2%	0	3.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 12,500	$67.12	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25,000	$64.23	0.0%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$60.80	0.2%	0	4.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$60.80	0.2%	0	4.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$59.09	0.2%	0	2.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 5,000	$57.58	0.2%	0	4.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 11,111	$55.91	0.1%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12,500	$55.91	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 33,333	$55.60	0.0%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$55.23	0.2%	0	3.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$54.85	0.2%	0	3.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$54.68	0.3%	0	5.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 7,692	$53.88	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$51.70	0.3%	0	6.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25,000	$51.04	0.0%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 4,762	$44.91	0.2%	0	4.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$43.38	0.1%	0	3.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$42.35	0.1%	0	3.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$42.09	0.2%	0	4.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 4,167	$42.00	0.2%	0	5.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,704	$39.47	0.2%	0	5.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,545	$37.58	0.2%	0	4.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$36.49	0.1%	0	3.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 4,167	$36.38	0.2%	0	5.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,961	$35.60	0.3%	0	10.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 3,030	$32.20	0.2%	0	7.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 8,333	$31.38	0.1%	0	2.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,125	$31.20	0.2%	0	6.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 5,000	$30.76	0.1%	0	4.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 2,632	$28.60	0.2%	0	8.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 9,091	$25.34	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 12,500	$24.97	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,923	$24.18	0.2%	0	11.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 192	$20.53	2.0%	0	109.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 166	$19.23	2.2%	0	127.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 990	$18.79	0.4%	0	21.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 161	$18.75	2.2%	0	131.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$18.13	3.1%	0	187.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 299	$17.60	1.1%	0	70.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 138	$17.54	2.4%	0	152.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 156	$16.78	2.1%	0	135.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 385	$16.28	0.8%	0	54.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 133	$15.51	2.2%	0	158.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$13.37	2.6%	0	211.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 49	$13.14	5.1%	0	427.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 55	$10.97	3.8%	0	380.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$10.77	6.2%	0	636.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 202	$10.48	1.0%	0	104.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 43	$9.77	4.4%	0	494.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 163	$9.26	1.1%	0	129.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 160	$8.86	1.1%	0	131.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 132	$8.58	1.2%	0	159.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 175	$7.89	0.9%	0	120.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 111	$7.37	1.3%	0	189.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 72	$7.25	1.9%	0	293.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 5,000	$7.08	0.0%	0	4.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 54	$6.95	2.4%	0	387.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 65	$6.92	2.0%	0	322.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 49	$6.67	2.6%	0	433.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$6.43	2.7%	0	466.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 54	$6.30	2.2%	0	389.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$6.03	2.8%	0	514.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 29	$5.88	3.9%	0	724.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 46	$5.69	2.3%	0	456.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 46	$5.66	2.4%	0	461.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 26	$5.56	4.1%	0	815.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 49	$5.51	2.1%	0	426.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 39	$5.20	2.6%	0	546.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 38	$4.85	2.4%	0	549.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 769	$4.70	0.1%	0	27.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 2,500	$4.69	0.0%	0	8.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 346	$4.61	0.3%	0	60.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 333	$4.50	0.3%	0	63.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 325	$4.43	0.3%	0	64.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 302	$4.24	0.3%	0	69.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 571	$3.79	0.1%	0	36.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 508	$3.59	0.1%	0	41.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 279	$3.30	0.2%	0	75.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 279	$3.30	0.2%	0	75.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 439	$3.30	0.1%	0	48.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 203	$2.71	0.3%	0	103.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 303	$2.62	0.2%	0	69.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 272	$2.45	0.2%	0	77.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 282	$2.43	0.2%	0	74.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 253	$2.34	0.2%	0	83.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 240	$2.25	0.2%	0	87.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 232	$2.20	0.2%	0	90.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 658	$2.17	0.1%	0	32.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 209	$2.06	0.2%	0	100.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 195	$1.93	0.2%	0	108.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 195	$1.93	0.2%	0	108.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 556	$1.81	0.1%	0	37.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 209	$1.06	0.1%	0	100.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 170	$0.93	0.1%	0	124.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 128	$0.78	0.1%	0	164.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 120	$0.75	0.1%	0	174.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 98	$0.61	0.1%	0	214.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 98	$0.61	0.1%	0	214.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 90	$0.58	0.1%	0	233.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 488	$0.42	0.0%	0	43.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 267	$0.32	0.0%	0	78.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 159	$0.24	0.0%	0	132.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 66	$0.12	0.0%	0	319.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 56	$0.12	0.0%	0	378.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 48	$0.11	0.0%	0	434.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight	1 in 35	$0.09	0.0%	0	599.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 28	$0.08	0.1%	0	764.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 28	$0.08	0.1%	0	764.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 28	$0.08	0.1%	0	764.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 35	$0.08	0.0%	0	610.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 35	$0.08	0.0%	0	610.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 29	$0.08	0.1%	0	723.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 22	$0.06	0.1%	0	971.2	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/ak-47, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$6.00$5,835972.5x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | VariCamo Greyweapon · blueLight$6.00$0.080.01x4m

AK-47 | Safari Meshweapon · blueLighttwitch.tv/agiie$6.00$0.100.02x4m

AK-47 | Safari Meshweapon · blueLightjac0b$6.00$0.100.02x4m

AK-47 | Unchartedweapon · blue$6.00$0.920.15x4m

AK-47 | Crane Flightweapon · pink$6.00$12.172.03x4m

AK-47 | Rat Rodweapon · violet$6.00$5.380.90x4m

AK-47 | Nouveau Rougeweapon · pinkNever give up$6.00$7.811.30x4m

AK-47 | The Outsidersweapon · pink$6.00$7.951.33x5m

AK-47 | Safari Meshweapon · blueLight$6.00$0.100.02x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$6.00	87.50%	141
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$6.00	87.44%	141
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$6.00	87.25%	141
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$6.00	87.47%	141
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$6.00	87.80%	141
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$6.00	87.90%	141
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$6.00	87.80%	141
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$6.00	87.90%	141
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$6.00	87.76%	141
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$6.00	87.36%	141
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$6.00	87.57%	141
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$6.00	87.76%	141
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.00	87.71%	141
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$6.00	87.39%	141
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$6.00	87.35%	141
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$6.00	87.66%	141

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%legendary 0.0%classified 4.4%red 0.1%pink 18.5%Ancient 0.1%rare 1.4%restricted 4.3%Legendary 7.5%Covert 0.0%mil spec 2.4%Mythical 3.0%violet 3.5%blue 5.1%industrial 4.3%#d32ce6 4.1%#d32ee6 2.1%Classified 3.4%#4b69ff 2.2%milspec 0.8%Rare 2.0%common 0.7%#5e98d9 2.3%Uncommon 14.8%blueLight 5.7%#87c7ff 3.6%light blue 3.4%best hit $5,835 (972.5x)