AK-47 JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$232.24

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $203.21 from 141 items

Observed RTP, 30d

72.88%

1,222 openings, odds method

Variance

15.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 36

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

109 openings · below min

7 days

71.69%±24.76986 openings

30 days

72.88%±22.201,222 openings

since tracking started

72.88%±22.201,222 openings

34.5%109.5%184.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	109	109.49%±74.4	—	odds
7d	986	71.69%±24.8	−1.2σ	odds
30d	1,222	72.88%±22.2	−1.3σ	odds
All	1,222	72.88%±22.2	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values141 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,226 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$5,630	76.9%	27	34.0	0.79×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 180	$398	1.1%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$386	1.8%	0	11.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$295	1.3%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 180	$268	0.7%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$201	0.7%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$193	0.7%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 108	$189	0.9%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$172	0.6%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 180	$168	0.5%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$156	0.5%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$152	0.5%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$135	0.5%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$131	0.6%	0	11.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$126	0.6%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$122	0.6%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 180	$117	0.3%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$116	0.4%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$115	0.4%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 180	$110	0.3%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$104	0.5%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 180	$93.95	0.3%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 180	$93.90	0.3%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 108	$87.98	0.4%	0	11.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$83.83	0.3%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 180	$80.60	0.2%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$78.31	0.4%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 108	$76.39	0.3%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 180	$67.75	0.2%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 180	$64.23	0.2%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$60.80	0.3%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 180	$60.74	0.2%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$59.09	0.2%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 72	$57.58	0.4%	0	17.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 108	$55.91	0.3%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$55.49	0.4%	0	17.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$55.25	0.2%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 180	$54.73	0.1%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$54.68	0.4%	0	17.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$53.93	0.2%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 180	$53.27	0.1%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$52.26	0.2%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 144	$51.04	0.2%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 108	$44.72	0.2%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 180	$43.07	0.1%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 180	$42.44	0.1%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 108	$42.00	0.2%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 180	$41.26	0.1%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$39.37	0.2%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 180	$37.58	0.1%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$36.49	0.2%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$36.31	0.2%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 72	$35.60	0.2%	0	17.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 180	$32.11	0.1%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$31.20	0.1%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$30.91	0.1%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 108	$30.71	0.1%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 108	$30.68	0.1%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 144	$24.97	0.1%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$24.87	0.2%	0	17.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$24.13	0.1%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$19.40	0.1%	0	17.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$19.29	0.1%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 108	$19.19	0.1%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$18.52	0.1%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 180	$18.48	0.1%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$17.77	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 108	$17.22	0.1%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$16.94	0.1%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 108	$16.26	0.1%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$15.38	0.1%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 180	$13.98	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$13.22	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$10.52	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 144	$10.30	0.0%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 180	$10.14	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 144	$9.81	0.0%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 180	$9.22	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$8.56	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 180	$8.28	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 144	$8.00	0.0%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 180	$7.51	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 144	$7.42	0.0%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 180	$7.34	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 180	$7.08	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 144	$7.04	0.0%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 144	$6.89	0.0%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 180	$6.83	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$6.19	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 144	$6.15	0.0%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 108	$6.00	0.0%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$5.88	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$5.68	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 108	$5.53	0.0%	0	11.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 180	$5.28	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 180	$5.26	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 180	$4.87	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 180	$4.70	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 180	$4.68	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 180	$4.68	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 180	$4.67	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 180	$4.66	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 180	$4.56	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 180	$3.84	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 180	$3.59	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 144	$3.43	0.0%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 144	$3.18	0.0%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 180	$3.12	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 144	$2.71	0.0%	0	8.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Well-Worn)weapon · common	1 in 180	$2.62	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 180	$2.48	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Battle-Scarred)weapon · common	1 in 180	$2.43	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Crossfade (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 180	$2.36	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 180	$2.33	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 180	$2.16	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 180	$2.14	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 180	$2.06	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 180	$1.93	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 180	$1.93	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 180	$1.77	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 180	$1.04	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 180	$0.90	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 180	$0.78	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 180	$0.76	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Uncharted (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 180	$0.75	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 180	$0.60	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 180	$0.58	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 180	$0.39	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 180	$0.34	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 180	$0.24	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 180	$0.12	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 180	$0.12	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 180	$0.11	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Well-Worn)weapon · blueLight	1 in 180	$0.09	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueLight	1 in 180	$0.09	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 180	$0.08	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 180	$0.08	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #87c7ff	1 in 180	$0.08	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 180	$0.08	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Field-Tested)weapon · light blue	1 in 180	$0.08	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 180	$0.06	0.0%	0	6.8	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/ak-47-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$245$6,00924.52x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertKOD SOUL$245$6,00924.52x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$245$6,00924.52x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertKOD SOUL$245$6,00924.52x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$245$6,00924.52x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertKOD SOUL$245$6,00924.52x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$245$6,00924.53x5d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert17curses$239$5,83524.41x3d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert* HFoJ * GameOver #$239$5,83524.40x4d

AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertDMG$239$5,82524.41x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Nouveau Rougeweapon · pink$232$12.110.05x1h

AK-47 | Elite Buildweapon · blue$232$3.880.02x1h

AK-47 | Head Shotweapon · red$232$46.590.20x1h

AK-47 | Asiimovweapon · redRadziu$232$55.080.24x1h

AK-47 | Searing Rageweapon · pink$232$9.900.04x4h

AK-47 | Bloodsportweapon · red$232$1590.68x4h

AK-47 | Searing Rageweapon · pinkMatiR02$232$9.900.04x4h

AK-47 | Safari Meshweapon · blueLight$232$1.510.01x5h

AK-47 | Steel Deltaweapon · blue$232$4.050.02x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$232	87.50%	141
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$232	87.50%	141
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$244	87.50%	141
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$239	87.50%	141
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$239	87.50%	141
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$239	87.50%	141
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$239	87.50%	141
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$239	87.50%	141
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$245	87.50%	141
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$245	87.50%	141
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$228	87.50%	141
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$228	87.50%	141
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$228	87.50%	141

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.2%legendary 0.6%classified 11.6%red 6.1%pink 8.0%Ancient 3.4%rare 2.8%restricted 8.1%Legendary 4.3%Covert 1.4%mil spec 3.1%Mythical 2.9%violet 2.9%blue 6.9%#d32ee6 0.7%industrial 1.7%#d32ce6 1.1%Classified 0.9%#4b69ff 1.7%milspec 1.1%Rare 2.8%common 1.1%#5e98d9 1.1%Uncommon 3.3%blueLight 1.1%#87c7ff 0.6%light blue 0.6%best hit $6,009 (24.52x)