AWP

A case on Casehug (CS2 WEAPONS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$10.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $8.75 from 82 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.47%

13.4K openings, odds method

Variance

47.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79.66%±29.192,132 openings

7 days

81.86%±12.8211.1K openings

30 days

88.47%±11.6413.4K openings

since tracking started

88.47%±11.6413.4K openings

50.0%79.8%109.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,132	79.66%±29.2	−0.5σ	odds
7d	11.1K	81.86%±12.8	−0.9σ	odds
30d	13.4K	88.47%±11.6	+0.2σ	odds
All	13.4K	88.47%±11.6	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values82 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.5K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$10.3K	2.4%	0	0.3	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$8,950	3.1%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$1,316	0.5%	1	0.4	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$793	0.5%	1	0.7	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$616	0.7%	1	1.3	0.74×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$320	0.4%	1	1.3	0.74×
AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$148	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$95.90	0.3%	5	4.0	1.24×
AWP \| CMYK (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$93.02	0.2%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$71.74	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 10,000	$71.67	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$63.82	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$60.74	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$58.55	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$58.14	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,000	$57.30	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$55.92	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$55.72	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$54.96	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 5,000	$54.67	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$54.01	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$53.92	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$53.63	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$53.21	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$48.44	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$45.37	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$44.40	0.2%	0	4.0	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$44.05	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$42.72	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$42.22	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$41.83	0.1%	0	2.7	0.00×
AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 2,500	$41.52	0.2%	0	5.4	0.00×
AWP \| LongDog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 2,500	$40.77	0.2%	0	5.4	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 14,286	$40.54	0.0%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,333	$38.14	0.1%	0	4.0	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 3,333	$37.68	0.1%	0	4.0	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 100	$35.86	4.1%	0	134.9	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$34.98	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 77	$31.49	4.7%	0	175.4	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 68	$29.59	5.0%	0	198.3	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 66	$27.19	4.7%	0	203.7	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 105	$21.97	2.4%	0	128.1	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 58	$21.89	4.3%	0	233.4	0.00×
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 57	$21.42	4.3%	0	237.4	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 46	$19.60	4.8%	0	291.4	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 145	$17.07	1.3%	0	93.1	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 56	$16.00	3.3%	0	240.1	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$15.10	3.5%	0	269.8	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 33	$14.72	5.1%	0	406.0	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 105	$13.35	1.4%	0	128.1	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 66	$12.50	2.2%	0	203.7	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 88	$11.52	1.5%	0	153.8	0.00×
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 11	$11.05	11.9%	0	1270.7	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$9.67	1.0%	0	125.4	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 89	$8.73	1.1%	0	151.1	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 71	$7.34	1.2%	0	188.8	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 68	$7.10	1.2%	0	198.3	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 62	$6.74	1.2%	0	217.2	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 103	$6.09	0.7%	0	130.8	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 88	$5.95	0.8%	0	152.4	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$5.89	1.1%	0	214.5	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$5.57	1.0%	0	210.4	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 48	$4.82	1.2%	0	283.3	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 46	$4.68	1.2%	0	295.4	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 61	$4.53	0.9%	0	222.6	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$4.43	1.5%	0	391.2	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 46	$4.38	1.1%	0	294.1	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 58	$4.38	0.9%	0	233.4	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 46	$4.36	1.1%	0	295.4	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$4.13	0.9%	0	253.6	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 53	$3.81	0.8%	0	252.2	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 53	$3.81	0.8%	0	252.2	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 51	$3.68	0.8%	0	265.7	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 26	$3.56	1.6%	0	520.7	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$1.58	0.5%	0	391.2	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.24	0.6%	0	549.0	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$1.14	0.6%	0	617.8	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 64	$0.83	0.1%	0	211.8	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 33	$0.52	0.2%	0	408.7	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 26	$0.44	0.2%	0	515.3	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$0.40	0.2%	0	589.5	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 22	$0.38	0.2%	0	604.3	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/awp, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$10.00$8,925892.5x7d

AWP | Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$10.00$1,309130.9x1d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertwoda anusowa$10.00$80180.07x2d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$10.00$63063.00x5d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Atherisweapon · restricted$10.00$5.400.54x14m

AWP | Arsenic Spillweapon · blue$10.00$0.460.05x14m

AWP | Elite Buildweapon · pinkdawidos patykos$10.00$12.681.27x14m

AWP | Dualityweapon · pinkjakimq skins.army$10.00$5.180.52x14m

AWP | Exoskeletonweapon · violetMLODY_GUZIOR skins.army$10.00$6.620.66x43m

AWP | Pit Viperweapon · violetMLODY_GUZIOR skins.army$10.00$1.290.13x44m

AWP | Arsenic Spillweapon · blueNRForceTomi$10.00$0.460.05x48m

AWP | Arsenic Spillweapon · blueNRForceTomi$10.00$0.460.05x51m

AWP | Exoskeletonweapon · violetNRForceTomi$10.00$6.620.66x1h

AWP | Dualityweapon · pinkDio187$10.00$5.180.52x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$10.00	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$10.00	87.46%	82
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$10.00	87.09%	82
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$10.00	87.57%	82
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$10.00	87.68%	82
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$10.00	87.52%	82
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$10.00	87.68%	82
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$10.00	87.33%	82
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$10.00	87.52%	82
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$10.00	87.52%	82
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$10.00	87.29%	82
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$10.00	87.28%	82
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$10.00	87.47%	82
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$10.00	87.28%	82
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$10.00	87.33%	82
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$10.00	87.75%	82
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$10.00	87.33%	82
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$10.00	87.75%	82
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$10.00	87.51%	82
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$10.00	87.68%	82
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$10.00	87.44%	82
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$10.00	87.68%	82
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$10.00	87.44%	82

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%red 4.0%rare 3.2%Ancient 0.1%restricted 17.8%pink 14.1%classified 11.3%Legendary 3.8%uncommon 4.5%Mythical 1.5%Classified 10.4%#d32ce6 5.3%violet 4.3%#8847ff 2.2%milspec 5.9%blue 6.9%Mil Spec 4.5%best hit $8,925 (892.5x)