AWP JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$910.52

Advertised RTP

90.50%

EV $824.02 from 82 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.33%

443 openings, odds method

Variance

7.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

141.90%±50.14112 openings

7 days

82.53%±28.40349 openings

30 days

81.33%±25.15443 openings

since tracking started

81.33%±25.15443 openings

53.5%123.0%192.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	112	141.90%±50.1	+2.0σ	odds
7d	349	82.53%±28.4	−0.5σ	odds
30d	443	81.33%±25.2	−0.7σ	odds
All	443	81.33%±25.2	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values82 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 553 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 28	$10.3K	44.7%	13	19.7	0.66×
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 28	$8,950	38.8%	20	19.7	1.01×
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 28	$1,316	5.7%	16	19.7	0.81×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 28	$793	3.4%	24	19.7	1.22×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 28	$616	2.7%	27	19.7	1.37×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 28	$320	1.4%	19	19.7	0.96×
AWP \| CMYK (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 56	$148	0.3%	0	9.9	0.00×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 28	$95.90	0.4%	17	19.7	0.86×
AWP \| CMYK (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 56	$93.02	0.2%	0	9.9	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$71.74	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 84	$71.67	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$63.82	0.1%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$60.74	0.1%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$58.55	0.1%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 84	$58.14	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 84	$57.30	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$55.92	0.1%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$55.72	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$54.96	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 84	$54.67	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$54.01	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$53.92	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 84	$53.63	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$53.21	0.1%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 84	$48.44	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 112	$45.37	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$44.40	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$44.05	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$42.72	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 112	$42.22	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$41.83	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 56	$41.52	0.1%	0	9.9	0.00×
AWP \| LongDog (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 56	$40.77	0.1%	0	9.9	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$40.54	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 84	$38.14	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 84	$37.68	0.1%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 112	$35.86	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$34.98	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 112	$31.49	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 112	$29.59	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 84	$27.19	0.0%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$21.97	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 84	$21.89	0.0%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 56	$21.42	0.0%	0	9.9	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 84	$19.60	0.0%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 112	$17.07	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$16.00	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$15.10	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$14.72	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 140	$13.35	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 140	$12.50	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$11.52	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 56	$11.05	0.0%	0	9.9	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$9.67	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 112	$8.73	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 84	$7.34	0.0%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 84	$7.10	0.0%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 112	$6.74	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 140	$6.09	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 140	$5.95	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$5.89	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$5.57	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$4.82	0.0%	0	4.0	0.00×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$4.68	0.0%	0	4.0	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 140	$4.53	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 112	$4.43	0.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 140	$4.38	0.0%	0	4.0	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$4.38	0.0%	0	4.0	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$4.36	0.0%	0	4.0	0.00×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 140	$4.13	0.0%	0	4.0	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$3.81	0.0%	0	4.0	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$3.81	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$3.68	0.0%	0	4.0	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 84	$3.56	0.0%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$1.58	0.0%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$1.24	0.0%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$1.14	0.0%	0	6.6	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 140	$0.83	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 140	$0.52	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 140	$0.44	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 140	$0.40	0.0%	0	4.0	0.00×
AWP \| Arsenic Spill (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 140	$0.38	0.0%	0	4.0	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/awp-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covertBrugalini14$917$10.3K11.26x2d

AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$917$10.3K11.26x4d

AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$917$10.3K11.25x7d

AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covertXM1NN$911$10.3K11.32x19h

AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$911$10.3K11.32x19h

AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$909$10.3K11.30x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Exoskeletonweapon · violet$911$12.570.01x22m

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$911$6160.68x22m

AWP | Printstreamweapon · red$911$53.120.06x22m

AWP | Arsenic Spillweapon · blueRadziu$911$0.510.00x22m

AWP | Ice Coaledweapon · pink$911$9.240.01x1h

AWP | Exoskeletonweapon · violet$911$12.570.01x1h

AWP | Pit Viperweapon · violet$911$1.320.00x1h

AWP | Mortisweapon · pinkBONUS CODE: ASLAN$911$6.470.01x1h

AWP | Neo-Noirweapon · red$911$57.100.06x3h

AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$911$3200.35x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$911	90.50%	82
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$911	90.50%	82
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$909	90.50%	82
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$916	90.50%	82
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$909	90.50%	82
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$917	90.50%	82
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$910	90.50%	82
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$920	90.50%	82
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$917	90.50%	82
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$918	90.50%	82
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$908	90.50%	82
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$917	90.50%	82
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$908	90.50%	82

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 39.6%red 13.7%rare 4.8%Ancient 5.1%restricted 7.9%pink 6.5%classified 5.0%Legendary 3.2%uncommon 3.0%Mythical 0.7%Classified 2.5%#d32ce6 2.4%violet 1.4%#8847ff 0.7%milspec 1.4%blue 1.4%Mil Spec 0.7%best hit $10.3K (11.26x)