BUZZER BLADE

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$42.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $36.75 from 92 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.45%

3,001 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.27%±10.94361 openings

7 days

83.68%±4.302,509 openings

30 days

83.45%±3.953,001 openings

since tracking started

83.45%±3.953,001 openings

72.5%84.3%96.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.54% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (79.50% – 87.41%, 3,001 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	361	84.27%±10.9	−0.6σ	odds
7d	2,509	83.68%±4.30	−1.8σ	odds
30d	3,001	83.45%±3.95	−2.0σ	odds
All	3,001	83.45%±3.95	−2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values92 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,009 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$793	0.6%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$616	0.7%	1	1.2	0.83×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$541	0.7%	0	1.5	0.00×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$532	0.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 2,000	$492	0.7%	1	1.5	0.66×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$320	0.3%	0	0.9	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$284	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,000	$196	0.1%	0	0.6	—
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 769	$196	0.7%	7	3.9	1.79×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$193	0.2%	0	0.9	—
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 769	$190	0.7%	4	3.9	1.02×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$166	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$158	0.1%	0	0.9	—
AK-47 \| First Class (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 625	$158	0.7%	15	4.8	3.12×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 370	$155	1.1%	0	8.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 345	$152	1.2%	0	8.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 323	$147	1.2%	0	9.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$143	4.5%	24	34.6	0.69×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 476	$129	0.7%	0	6.3	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 588	$128	0.6%	0	5.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 127	$121	2.6%	0	23.8	0.00×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 370	$118	0.9%	0	8.1	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 455	$114	0.7%	0	6.6	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 68	$112	4.5%	41	43.9	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 400	$109	0.7%	0	7.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 256	$109	1.2%	0	11.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 769	$104	0.4%	0	3.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 217	$104	1.3%	0	13.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 769	$103	0.4%	0	3.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 70	$90.51	3.5%	46	43.0	1.07×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 333	$84.99	0.7%	0	9.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 65	$84.62	3.5%	31	46.0	0.67×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 385	$83.95	0.6%	0	7.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 156	$82.38	1.4%	0	19.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 294	$80.96	0.7%	0	10.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 238	$80.83	0.9%	0	12.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 149	$80.33	1.5%	0	20.2	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 286	$79.28	0.8%	0	10.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$76.58	3.5%	45	50.9	0.88×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$74.67	0.9%	0	12.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 250	$74.31	0.8%	0	12.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$73.54	1.0%	0	15.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 196	$72.97	1.0%	0	15.3	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 233	$71.74	0.8%	0	12.9	0.00×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 159	$68.70	1.2%	0	19.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 179	$65.16	1.0%	0	16.9	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 238	$61.72	0.7%	0	12.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 137	$60.74	1.2%	0	22.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$60.40	2.5%	0	46.0	0.00×
★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 38	$55.91	4.0%	76	78.8	0.96×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 149	$55.72	1.0%	0	20.2	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$54.96	1.2%	0	25.0	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 141	$54.01	1.0%	0	21.4	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$53.92	1.3%	0	25.9	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 36	$52.17	4.0%	67	84.6	0.79×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 70	$48.39	1.9%	0	43.0	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 32	$47.48	4.0%	89	92.7	0.96×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 95	$44.40	1.3%	0	31.6	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 88	$41.71	1.3%	0	34.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 93	$41.50	1.2%	0	32.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$37.47	3.2%	0	94.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 84	$37.36	1.2%	0	35.8	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$37.09	1.3%	0	37.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 29	$36.49	3.4%	0	103.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 79	$35.60	1.2%	0	38.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 71	$33.08	1.3%	0	42.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 55	$28.78	1.4%	0	54.5	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 417	$24.27	0.2%	0	7.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 38	$22.14	1.6%	0	78.8	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 270	$17.82	0.2%	0	11.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 189	$16.34	0.2%	0	15.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 200	$16.28	0.2%	0	15.0	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 238	$14.05	0.2%	0	12.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 86	$8.90	0.3%	0	34.9	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 100	$8.86	0.2%	0	30.1	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 83	$7.65	0.2%	0	36.1	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 73	$6.07	0.2%	0	41.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 48	$5.88	0.3%	0	62.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 45	$5.56	0.3%	0	67.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$5.37	0.4%	0	75.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 38	$4.94	0.4%	0	79.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$4.88	0.3%	0	67.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 43	$4.80	0.3%	0	70.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 34	$4.80	0.4%	0	89.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 32	$4.57	0.4%	0	95.1	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$4.24	0.3%	0	84.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$4.22	0.3%	0	82.7	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$4.21	0.3%	0	68.6	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$4.16	0.3%	0	84.3	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 33	$4.01	0.3%	0	90.9	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$3.49	0.3%	0	89.1	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$3.44	0.3%	0	88.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/buzzer-blade, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertSanta Martini$42.00$80719.22x4d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$42.00$63015.00x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Blueprintweapon · blue$42.00$5.540.13x5m

★ Paracord Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · gold$42.00$55.911.33x5m

AWP | Wildfireweapon · redWuj WodzU$42.00$53.581.28x5m

USP-S | Blueprintweapon · blue$42.00$5.540.13x5m

★ Paracord Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · gold$42.00$55.911.33x5m

Galil AR | Chromatic Aberrationweapon · pinkWuj WodzU$42.00$5.310.13x5m

FAMAS | Commemorationweapon · red$42.00$42.331.01x5m

USP-S | Blueprintweapon · blue$42.00$5.540.13x5m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$42.00	87.50%	92
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$42.00	87.74%	92
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$42.00	87.50%	92
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$42.00	87.74%	92
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$42.00	87.40%	92
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$42.00	87.57%	92
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$42.00	87.30%	92
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$42.00	87.57%	92
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$42.00	87.72%	92
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$42.00	87.57%	92
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$42.00	87.41%	92
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$42.00	87.72%	92
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$42.00	87.41%	92
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$42.00	87.75%	92
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$42.00	87.60%	92
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$42.00	87.33%	92
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$42.00	87.50%	92
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$42.00	87.33%	92
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$42.00	87.68%	92
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$42.00	87.52%	92
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$42.00	87.52%	92
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$42.00	87.48%	92
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$42.00	87.32%	92

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 20.7%restricted 2.2%sunny 0.1%Ancient 4.4%Immortal 2.9%classified 15.1%Classified 2.3%red 4.9%pink 18.4%gold 2.6%violet 4.4%mil spec 9.2%Legendary 10.3%#d32ee6 2.6%best hit $807 (19.22x)