BUZZER BLADE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$170.19

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $148.92 from 92 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.31%

222 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

56 openings · below min

7 days

87.08%±14.62209 openings

30 days

85.31%±14.19222 openings

since tracking started

85.31%±14.19222 openings

54.0%83.0%112.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	56	83.18%±28.4	—	odds
7d	209	87.08%±14.6	−0.1σ	odds
30d	222	85.31%±14.2	−0.3σ	odds
All	222	85.31%±14.2	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values92 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 252 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$793	14.8%	7	7.0	1.00×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$616	11.5%	7	7.0	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$541	10.1%	12	7.0	1.71×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$532	3.3%	0	2.3	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 36	$492	9.2%	5	7.0	0.71×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$320	2.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$284	1.8%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 108	$196	1.2%	0	2.3	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 36	$196	3.6%	8	7.0	1.14×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$193	0.9%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$190	3.5%	4	7.0	0.57×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$166	1.6%	0	3.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$158	1.5%	0	3.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| First Class (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$158	2.9%	7	7.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$155	0.7%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$152	0.7%	0	1.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$147	0.7%	0	1.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$143	2.7%	5	7.0	0.71×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$129	0.6%	0	1.7	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$128	0.6%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$121	1.1%	0	3.5	0.00×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified	1 in 108	$118	0.7%	0	2.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 180	$114	0.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 36	$112	2.1%	3	7.0	0.43×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$109	0.5%	0	1.7	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$109	1.0%	0	3.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$104	0.6%	0	2.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$104	1.0%	0	3.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 144	$103	0.5%	0	1.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 36	$90.51	1.7%	10	7.0	1.43×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 180	$84.99	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 36	$84.62	1.6%	5	7.0	0.71×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$83.95	0.4%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$82.38	0.5%	0	2.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 180	$80.96	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$80.83	0.4%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 108	$80.33	0.5%	0	2.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 180	$79.28	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$76.58	1.4%	7	7.0	1.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$74.67	0.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 180	$74.31	0.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$73.54	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$72.97	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$71.74	0.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 108	$68.70	0.4%	0	2.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$65.16	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$61.72	0.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$60.74	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$60.40	0.6%	0	3.5	0.00×
★ Paracord Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 36	$55.91	1.0%	9	7.0	1.29×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$55.72	0.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$54.96	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$54.01	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$53.92	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 36	$52.17	1.0%	8	7.0	1.14×
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 108	$48.39	0.3%	0	2.3	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 36	$47.48	0.9%	7	7.0	1.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$44.40	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$41.71	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$41.50	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$37.47	0.3%	0	3.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 144	$37.36	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 144	$37.09	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$36.49	0.3%	0	3.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 144	$35.60	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 144	$33.08	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 108	$28.78	0.2%	0	2.3	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 180	$24.27	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 108	$22.14	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 180	$17.82	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 144	$16.34	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 180	$16.28	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 180	$14.05	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 180	$8.90	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 180	$8.86	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$7.65	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$6.07	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 180	$5.88	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 180	$5.56	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 144	$5.37	0.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 180	$4.94	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 180	$4.88	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 180	$4.80	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 144	$4.80	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 144	$4.57	0.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$4.24	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$4.22	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$4.21	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 180	$4.16	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 180	$4.01	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$3.49	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 180	$3.44	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/buzzer-blade-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$173$8314.79x8d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertdawidjapczak$171$8054.71x5d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$171$8054.71x6d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$169$8014.73x4d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertaludhxcs$169$8014.73x4d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$170$7934.65x19h

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$170$7934.65x22h

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$171$6303.68x2d

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert$171$6303.68x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertcode VESU$170$6163.62x2h

AWP | Containment Breachweapon · red$170$77.070.45x5h

P250 | Apep's Curseweapon · pink$170$78.460.46x5h

★ Paracord Knife | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · goldWuj WodzU$170$55.910.33x5h

Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted$170$5413.18x5h

AK-47 | Vulcanweapon · red$170$1440.84x5h

P250 | Apep's Curseweapon · pinkWuj WodzU$170$78.460.46x5h

USP-S | Blueprintweapon · blue????????????skins.army$170$7.770.05x8h

AK-47 | Bloodsportweapon · red????????????skins.army$170$1590.93x8h

M4A4 | Red DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted$170$1881.10x19h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$170	87.50%	92
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$170	87.50%	92
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$172	87.50%	92
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$171	87.50%	92
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$171	87.50%	92
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$173	87.50%	92
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$170	87.50%	92
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$169	87.50%	92
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$171	87.50%	92
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$171	87.50%	92
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$172	86.68%	92
4 Nov, 04:46 UTC	$172	87.50%	92
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$173	87.50%	92

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 37.0%restricted 12.0%sunny 2.8%Ancient 6.3%Immortal 5.6%classified 11.1%Classified 1.5%red 6.6%pink 5.7%gold 2.8%violet 1.9%mil spec 2.8%Legendary 3.3%#d32ee6 0.6%best hit $831 (4.79x)