CHINATOWN
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$97.50
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $85.31 from 56 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.43%
2,101 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,103 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/chinatown, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $97.50 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $97.50 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $97.50 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $97.50 | 87.18% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $97.50 | 86.98% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $97.50 | 87.65% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $97.50 | 87.99% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $97.50 | 87.58% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $97.50 | 87.71% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $97.50 | 86.62% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $97.50 | 87.68% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $97.50 | 86.61% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $97.50 | 86.69% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $97.50 | 88.19% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 10:08 UTC | $97.50 | 87.46% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 09:09 UTC | $97.50 | 88.80% | 56 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $97.50 | 89.11% | 56 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 42.4%extraordinary 0.0%epic 1.5%legendary 0.1%sunny 11.9%red 1.1%classified 12.9%Legendary 3.5%pink 15.0%Classified 11.6%best hit $2,354 (24.14x)