CHINATOWN JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$898.38
Advertised RTP
90.50%
EV $813.03 from 56 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.45%
259 openings, odds method
Variance
7.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 479 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/chinatown-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC | $898 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $907 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $910 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $911 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $914 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $913 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 23:35 UTC | $914 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $918 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 05:08 UTC | $919 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | $918 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $918 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $922 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $926 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 04:46 UTC | $921 | 90.50% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $930 | 90.50% | 56 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 64.7%extraordinary 3.4%epic 6.9%legendary 3.4%sunny 3.4%red 0.9%classified 6.9%Legendary 1.6%pink 5.7%Classified 3.1%best hit $14.1K (15.14x)