COVERT

A case on Casehug (BY RARITY), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$13.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $11.37 from 72 items

Observed RTP, 30d

123.91%

5,584 openings, odds method

Variance

10.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

130.59%±23.52740 openings

7 days

122.97%±9.924,522 openings

30 days

123.91%±8.855,584 openings

since tracking started

123.91%±8.855,584 openings

87.0%121.0%155.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.64% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (115.06% – 132.77%, 5,584 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	740	130.59%±23.5	+3.6σ	odds
7d	4,522	122.97%±9.92	+7.0σ	odds
30d	5,584	123.91%±8.85	+8.0σ	odds
All	5,584	123.91%±8.85	+8.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values72 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,618 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$6,395	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$5,630	1.5%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$616	0.3%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$610	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$284	0.2%	2	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$280	0.2%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$256	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,762	$242	0.4%	5	1.2	4.24×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$242	0.3%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$212	0.4%	7	1.3	5.19×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$150	0.1%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$148	0.2%	0	1.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,941	$147	0.4%	4	1.9	2.09×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,857	$147	0.5%	7	2.0	3.56×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$139	0.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$137	0.1%	0	0.5	—
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$135	0.1%	0	0.6	—
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$134	0.1%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 11,111	$131	0.1%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$126	0.1%	0	0.6	—
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 25,000	$125	0.0%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,439	$124	0.4%	11	2.3	4.78×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$122	0.1%	0	0.6	—
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 8,333	$122	0.1%	0	0.7	—
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,273	$114	0.4%	5	2.5	2.02×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 7,692	$114	0.1%	0	0.7	—
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,222	$111	0.4%	12	2.5	4.75×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$102	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 4,000	$102	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 5,263	$92.38	0.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 9,091	$87.71	0.1%	0	0.6	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 3,448	$84.99	0.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 4,348	$84.20	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$80.83	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 3,030	$79.28	0.2%	0	1.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$75.90	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,493	$74.67	0.4%	17	3.8	4.52×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$73.54	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$72.97	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$68.38	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,846	$65.44	0.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,299	$65.16	0.4%	13	4.3	3.01×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,273	$62.44	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$60.74	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$60.50	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 4,348	$58.63	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,448	$57.05	0.1%	0	1.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$56.82	0.1%	0	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 4,000	$55.66	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,222	$54.96	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 3,226	$54.34	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$53.92	0.2%	0	2.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,941	$52.36	0.2%	0	1.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 3,333	$50.97	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 134	$48.67	3.2%	0	41.9	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 123	$46.62	3.3%	0	45.6	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 126	$42.72	3.0%	0	44.7	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 123	$42.22	3.0%	0	45.8	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$41.83	3.1%	0	46.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 188	$40.79	1.9%	0	29.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 159	$40.36	2.2%	0	35.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 164	$38.10	2.0%	0	34.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$37.90	2.4%	0	40.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 146	$35.89	2.2%	0	38.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 125	$33.26	2.3%	0	44.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	16.4%	$31.55	45.4%	0	918.8	0.00×
Sticker \| Old School (Lenticular)sticker · red	1 in 13	$6.03	4.0%	732	424.1	1.73×
Sticker \| TV Installation (Lenticular)sticker · red	1 in 11	$3.73	3.0%	852	513.9	1.66×
Sticker \| Freeze (Lenticular)sticker · Extraordinary	13.1%	$1.51	1.7%	1,158	737.9	1.57×
Sticker \| Skin Lover (Lenticular)sticker · Ancient	13.6%	$1.38	1.7%	1,258	764.9	1.64×
Sticker \| HEROIC (Gold) \| Austin 2025sticker · red	15.4%	$1.01	1.4%	0	866.6	0.00×
Sticker \| MIBR (Gold) \| Austin 2025sticker · red	15.5%	$0.99	1.4%	0	873.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/covert, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Code Redweapon · red$13.00$54.464.19x6m

Sticker | Skin Lover (Lenticular)sticker · Ancient$13.00$1.380.11x6m

Glock-18 | Gold Toofweapon · red$13.00$36.732.83x7m

Sticker | Old School (Lenticular)sticker · red$13.00$6.030.46x7m

Sticker | Skin Lover (Lenticular)sticker · Ancient兔子 skins.army$13.00$1.380.11x7m

M4A1-S | Vaporwaveweapon · redShuriken$13.00$58.814.52x7m

Glock-18 | Gold Toofweapon · red$13.00$36.732.83x8m

Sticker | TV Installation (Lenticular)sticker · redSoBoL BuK$13.00$3.730.29x8m

Sticker | Freeze (Lenticular)sticker · Extraordinary$13.00$1.510.12x23m

M4A4 | Neo-Noirweapon · red_Mefju_$13.00$32.142.47x23m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$13.00	87.50%	72
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$13.00	87.34%	72
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$13.00	87.90%	72
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$13.00	87.82%	72
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$13.00	87.56%	72
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$13.00	87.75%	72
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$13.00	87.17%	72
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$13.00	87.01%	72
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$13.00	87.50%	72
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$13.00	87.97%	72
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$13.00	87.99%	72
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$13.00	87.64%	72
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$13.00	87.84%	72
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$13.00	87.51%	72

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 21.3%red 50.7%rare 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.0%Covert 0.0%Ancient 14.8%Extraordinary 13.1%best hit —