DOUBLE CHEESE
A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$0.45
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $0.39 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.00%
79.8K openings, odds method
Variance
6.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.80% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (83.18% – 86.82%, 79,760 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 80K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/double-cheese, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 20:31 UTC | $0.45 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $0.45 | 87.67% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:14 UTC | $0.45 | 87.85% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $0.45 | 87.14% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:16 UTC | $0.45 | 87.91% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $0.45 | 88.45% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:00 UTC | $0.45 | 88.34% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 10:57 UTC | $0.45 | 87.87% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $0.45 | 87.99% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:43 UTC | $0.45 | 87.59% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $0.45 | 87.87% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.45 | 88.15% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 16:38 UTC | $0.45 | 88.04% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 09:33 UTC | $0.45 | 88.43% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | $0.45 | 88.19% | 35 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.0%sunny 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%classified 0.5%pink 0.0%violet 18.0%Mythical 6.5%Restricted 0.6%#4b69ff 1.6%mil spec 8.8%Rare 12.6%Mil Spec 5.0%blue 26.2%milspec 9.5%light blue 10.9%best hit $148 (329.4x)