DOUBLE CHEESE JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$26.07

Advertised RTP

87.49%

EV $22.81 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.89%

2,845 openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.62%±16.56336 openings

7 days

85.01%±6.272,362 openings

30 days

86.89%±5.712,845 openings

since tracking started

86.89%±5.712,845 openings

63.5%80.8%98.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	336	80.62%±16.6	−0.8σ	odds
7d	2,362	85.01%±6.27	−0.8σ	odds
30d	2,845	86.89%±5.71	−0.2σ	odds
All	2,845	86.89%±5.71	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,849 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 26	$147	24.7%	104	109.6	0.95×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 26	$134	22.6%	113	109.6	1.03×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 26	$89.09	15.0%	114	109.6	1.04×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 26	$60.50	10.2%	104	109.6	0.95×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 26	$53.92	9.1%	114	109.6	1.04×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 26	$41.83	7.1%	105	109.6	0.96×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$16.80	2.8%	109	109.6	0.99×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$15.43	2.6%	109	109.6	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$15.18	2.6%	89	109.6	0.81×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 26	$7.02	1.2%	113	109.6	1.03×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$4.88	0.8%	120	109.6	1.10×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 52	$1.97	0.2%	0	54.8	0.00×
Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 52	$1.45	0.1%	0	54.8	0.00×
MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 26	$1.10	0.2%	129	109.6	1.18×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 52	$1.01	0.1%	0	54.8	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 52	$0.83	0.1%	0	54.8	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted	1 in 104	$0.80	0.0%	0	27.4	0.00×
G3SG1 \| Dream Glade (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 52	$0.66	0.1%	0	54.8	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 104	$0.66	0.0%	0	27.4	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 104	$0.66	0.0%	0	27.4	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 104	$0.64	0.0%	0	27.4	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 52	$0.46	0.0%	0	54.8	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 52	$0.46	0.0%	0	54.8	0.00×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$0.46	0.1%	94	109.6	0.86×
Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$0.46	0.1%	108	109.6	0.99×
MP7 \| Mischief (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 52	$0.43	0.0%	0	54.8	0.00×
Nova \| Windblown (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 52	$0.43	0.0%	0	54.8	0.00×
Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 52	$0.31	0.0%	0	54.8	0.00×
Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 26	$0.28	0.0%	117	109.6	1.07×
MP7 \| Mischief (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 52	$0.24	0.0%	0	54.8	0.00×
P2000 \| Red Wing (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 26	$0.24	0.0%	98	109.6	0.89×
MP5-SD \| Focus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 26	$0.24	0.0%	116	109.6	1.06×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 52	$0.20	0.0%	0	54.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 26	$0.20	0.0%	110	109.6	1.00×
MAC-10 \| Silver (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 26	$0.17	0.0%	105	109.6	0.96×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/double-cheese-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$26.07$89.093.42x1m

SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$26.07$0.460.02x1m

M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedyanek skins.army$26.07$15.180.58x1m

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedShow DLL$26.07$15.430.59x18m

Zeus x27 | Charged Upweapon · violetShow DLL$26.07$1.710.07x18m

MP9 | Food Chain (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedShow DLL$26.07$4.880.19x18m

MP5-SD | Focus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare$26.07$0.240.01x39m

Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)weapon · violet$26.07$0.460.02x39m

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkOsAmA peekcs2.me$26.07$7.020.27x39m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$26.07	87.49%	35
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$25.64	87.50%	35
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$26.20	87.49%	35
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$26.32	87.51%	35
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$26.79	87.49%	35
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$26.54	87.50%	35
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$26.22	87.50%	35
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$25.78	87.48%	35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$26.54	87.51%	35
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$25.78	87.48%	35
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$26.54	87.51%	35
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$26.38	87.48%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$26.14	87.50%	35
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$25.60	87.49%	35
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$26.10	87.50%	35
4 Nov, 04:46 UTC	$25.95	87.51%	35
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$26.07	87.51%	35
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$26.36	87.49%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 15.4%sunny 3.8%extraordinary 3.8%classified 15.4%pink 3.8%violet 19.2%Mythical 6.7%Restricted 1.0%#4b69ff 1.9%mil spec 3.8%Rare 5.8%Mil Spec 1.9%blue 9.6%milspec 3.8%light blue 3.8%best hit —