FLIP KNIVES

A case on Casehug (CS2 WEAPONS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$200.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $175.00 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.73%

616 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

84.73%±9.15110 openings

7 days

88.35%±4.14534 openings

30 days

88.73%±3.87616 openings

since tracking started

88.73%±3.87616 openings

75.0%84.7%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	110	84.73%±9.15	−0.6σ	odds
7d	534	88.35%±4.14	+0.4σ	odds
30d	616	88.73%±3.87	+0.6σ	odds
All	616	88.73%±3.87	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 619 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 70	$481	3.9%	6	8.8	0.68×
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 345	$458	0.8%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 149	$404	1.5%	0	4.1	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 123	$400	1.9%	0	5.0	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 54	$371	3.9%	17	11.4	1.49×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 54	$369	3.9%	10	11.5	0.87×
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 100	$359	2.0%	0	6.2	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 130	$353	1.6%	0	4.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$345	0.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 189	$330	1.0%	0	3.3	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 47	$318	3.9%	12	13.3	0.90×
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 208	$309	0.8%	0	3.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 278	$269	0.6%	0	2.2	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 41	$266	3.7%	0	15.0	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 24	$261	6.1%	20	25.4	0.79×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 68	$247	2.1%	0	9.2	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 60	$239	2.3%	0	10.3	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 36	$232	3.7%	0	17.3	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 48	$208	2.5%	0	12.9	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 45	$208	2.6%	0	13.7	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 30	$182	3.5%	0	20.6	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 31	$178	3.3%	0	20.2	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 29	$177	3.4%	0	21.0	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700	1 in 25	$177	4.1%	0	25.2	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 27	$170	3.6%	0	22.7	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 27	$167	3.5%	0	22.8	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 23	$166	4.2%	0	27.4	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 26	$163	3.6%	0	24.0	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 26	$163	3.6%	0	23.7	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 26	$160	3.5%	0	23.5	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 25	$154	3.5%	0	24.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 35	$109	1.8%	0	17.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 21	$74.67	2.1%	0	30.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 23	$66.23	1.6%	0	26.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$65.16	2.2%	0	36.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 18	$54.68	1.8%	0	34.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16	$51.70	1.8%	0	37.6	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/flip-knives, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700edek z fabryki kredek$200$5062.53x8d

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700grochalek$200$5062.53x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Flip Knife | Freehandknife · rare$200$1690.84x2m

AK-47 | Asiimovweapon · redN:OW$200$58.450.29x2m

★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steelknife · sunnyPociagTomasz$200$1710.86x6m

★ Flip Knife | Freehandknife · rare$200$1690.84x22m

★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$200$3711.85x22m

★ Flip Knife | Autotronicknife · rareroninbaby$200$2961.48x22m

M4A1-S | Golden Coilweapon · red$200$82.740.41x23m

★ Flip Knife | Autotronicknife · rare$200$2961.48x23m

AK-47 | Asiimovweapon · red$200$58.450.29x23m

★ Flip Knife | Freehandknife · rareroninbaby$200$1690.84x23m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$200	87.50%	37
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$200	87.57%	37
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$200	87.44%	37
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$200	87.46%	37
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$200	87.50%	37
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$200	87.46%	37
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$200	87.44%	37
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$200	87.91%	37
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$200	87.38%	37
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$200	87.49%	37
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$200	87.59%	37
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$200	87.49%	37
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$200	87.45%	37
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$200	87.87%	37
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$200	87.68%	37
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$200	87.46%	37
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$200	88.45%	37
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$200	88.00%	37

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#ffd700 5.5%sunny 7.0%covert 80.9%Immortal 2.2%Ancient 4.3%best hit $506 (2.53x)