GAMBIT

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$18.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $15.75 from 82 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.87%

3,869 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

61.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.58%±10.00682 openings

7 days

84.85%±4.533,412 openings

30 days

83.87%±4.263,869 openings

since tracking started

83.87%±4.263,869 openings

79.0%90.0%101.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	682	90.58%±10.0	+0.6σ	odds
7d	3,412	84.85%±4.53	−1.1σ	odds
30d	3,869	83.87%±4.26	−1.7σ	odds
All	3,869	83.87%±4.26	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values82 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,869 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,667	$316	1.2%	0	2.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$305	1.2%	1	2.3	0.43×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$262	1.2%	1	2.7	0.37×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$217	1.2%	1	3.5	0.29×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,000	$196	0.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 625	$121	1.2%	5	6.2	0.81×
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 556	$106	1.2%	4	7.0	0.57×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$104	0.1%	0	0.8	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 2,000	$84.62	0.3%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$83.95	0.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$82.38	0.5%	0	3.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,000	$80.33	0.5%	0	3.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$74.67	0.4%	0	3.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$68.38	0.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 357	$65.44	1.2%	0	10.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 278	$65.16	1.5%	0	13.9	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 93	$64.43	4.4%	43	41.8	1.03×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 417	$63.33	1.0%	0	9.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 238	$60.74	1.6%	0	16.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 303	$60.50	1.3%	0	12.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 323	$59.09	1.2%	0	12.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 476	$57.58	0.8%	0	8.1	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 333	$56.04	1.1%	0	11.6	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 263	$55.72	1.3%	0	14.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 286	$55.23	1.2%	0	13.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 278	$54.85	1.3%	0	13.9	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 244	$54.01	1.4%	0	15.9	0.00×
P250 \| Splash (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 263	$53.83	1.3%	0	14.7	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 263	$49.95	1.2%	0	14.7	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 263	$49.95	1.2%	0	14.7	0.00×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 175	$45.92	1.7%	0	22.1	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 78	$44.40	3.6%	0	49.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 333	$38.48	0.7%	0	11.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 125	$37.47	1.9%	0	31.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 95	$37.36	2.5%	0	40.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 167	$36.49	1.4%	0	23.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 86	$35.60	2.6%	0	44.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 122	$33.32	1.7%	0	31.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 75	$33.08	2.8%	0	51.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 49	$28.78	3.7%	0	78.5	0.00×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$27.19	6.0%	0	134.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 86	$24.27	1.8%	0	44.9	0.00×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$23.98	3.0%	0	77.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 39	$22.14	3.6%	0	99.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 70	$21.99	2.0%	0	54.9	0.00×
P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$21.92	5.1%	0	142.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 70	$20.53	1.9%	0	55.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 61	$20.50	2.1%	0	63.1	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$19.65	2.7%	0	84.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$18.75	2.0%	0	66.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 68	$17.75	1.7%	0	57.3	0.00×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$17.56	2.1%	0	72.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 98	$17.12	1.1%	0	39.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 137	$15.68	0.7%	0	28.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 114	$13.66	0.8%	0	34.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 128	$13.65	0.7%	0	30.2	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$12.91	0.8%	0	37.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 118	$12.75	0.7%	0	32.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 115	$12.55	0.7%	0	33.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 667	$12.51	0.1%	0	5.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$12.34	0.7%	0	34.4	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 96	$12.13	0.8%	0	40.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 244	$5.91	0.2%	0	15.9	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 159	$3.92	0.2%	0	24.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 84	$2.78	0.2%	0	46.0	0.00×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 154	$2.40	0.1%	0	25.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$1.95	0.1%	0	28.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$1.67	0.3%	0	93.6	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 44	$1.58	0.2%	0	87.1	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 59	$1.58	0.2%	0	65.4	0.00×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 84	$1.55	0.1%	0	46.0	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$1.24	0.2%	0	91.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$1.19	0.3%	0	150.5	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 38	$1.16	0.2%	0	100.6	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 37	$1.14	0.2%	0	103.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 53	$1.01	0.1%	0	72.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$0.80	0.1%	0	100.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 39	$0.80	0.1%	0	100.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 34	$0.73	0.1%	0	113.7	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$0.67	0.3%	0	289.8	0.00×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$0.66	0.2%	0	152.4	0.00×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 17	$0.49	0.2%	0	226.7	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/gambit, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Dual Berettas | Angel Eyesweapon · restricted$18.00$1.060.06x10m

M4A1-S | Liquidationweapon · restricted$18.00$2.020.11x10m

★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert$18.00$64.433.58x10m

M4A1-S | Night Terrorweapon · violetSoBoL BuK$18.00$0.900.05x10m

M4A1-S | Liquidationweapon · restricted$18.00$2.020.11x19m

AK-47 | Neon Riderweapon · red$18.00$57.313.18x19m

AWP | Pit Viperweapon · violetSoBoL BuK$18.00$1.250.07x19m

M4A1-S | Leaded Glassweapon · pink$18.00$14.890.83x38m

AK-47 | Frontside Mistyweapon · pink$18.00$21.171.18x38m

AWP | Pink DDPATweapon · restricted$18.00$29.831.66x38m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$18.00	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$18.00	87.31%	82
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$18.00	87.36%	82
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$18.00	87.68%	82
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$18.00	87.92%	82
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$18.00	87.38%	82
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$18.00	87.27%	82
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$18.00	87.27%	82
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$18.00	87.58%	82
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$18.00	87.51%	82
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$18.00	87.71%	82
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$18.00	87.64%	82
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$18.00	87.71%	82
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$18.00	87.76%	82
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$18.00	87.95%	82

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 6.2%classified 20.1%Ancient 2.2%violet 24.2%restricted 21.7%red 2.3%uncommon 0.5%Covert 0.2%Classified 0.8%pink 0.8%Mythical 7.2%#8847ff 13.8%best hit —