GAMBIT JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$88.03

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $77.03 from 82 items

Observed RTP, 30d

79.61%

339 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

67 openings · below min

7 days

79.57%±11.37330 openings

30 days

79.61%±11.22339 openings

since tracking started

79.61%±11.22339 openings

48.5%74.5%100.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	67	74.45%±25.3	—	odds
7d	330	79.57%±11.4	−1.4σ	odds
30d	339	79.61%±11.2	−1.4σ	odds
All	339	79.61%±11.2	−1.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values82 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 365 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$346	16.0%	11	13.0	0.84×
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$305	14.1%	9	13.0	0.69×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$262	12.1%	15	13.0	1.15×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 28	$218	10.1%	14	13.0	1.07×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 84	$196	3.0%	0	4.3	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 28	$122	5.7%	4	13.0	0.31×
FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$106	4.9%	8	13.0	0.61×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$104	1.6%	0	4.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$86.43	1.3%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 112	$84.34	1.0%	0	3.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$83.83	1.0%	0	3.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 84	$80.33	1.2%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$74.87	1.2%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$68.70	0.8%	0	3.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$68.38	0.8%	0	3.3	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 28	$65.25	3.0%	9	13.0	0.69×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 112	$64.00	0.7%	0	3.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$63.74	0.7%	0	3.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$63.19	1.0%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$60.74	0.9%	0	4.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 112	$59.78	0.7%	0	3.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$59.09	0.7%	0	3.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 112	$57.58	0.7%	0	3.3	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$55.28	0.9%	0	4.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$55.25	0.6%	0	3.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 112	$54.76	0.6%	0	3.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 112	$54.30	0.6%	0	3.3	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$54.01	0.8%	0	4.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$53.93	0.6%	0	3.3	0.00×
P250 \| Splash (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$53.83	1.2%	0	6.5	0.00×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$45.92	1.1%	0	6.5	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 84	$43.22	0.7%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 140	$38.16	0.4%	0	2.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$37.09	0.6%	0	4.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 112	$36.90	0.4%	0	3.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$36.49	0.4%	0	3.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 112	$35.60	0.4%	0	3.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 112	$31.95	0.4%	0	3.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 112	$31.56	0.4%	0	3.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 84	$28.78	0.4%	0	4.3	0.00×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$27.19	0.6%	0	6.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$24.93	0.3%	0	3.3	0.00×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 56	$23.98	0.6%	0	6.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 84	$22.14	0.3%	0	4.3	0.00×
P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$21.92	0.5%	0	6.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$21.04	0.2%	0	3.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$20.65	0.2%	0	3.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$19.65	0.3%	0	4.3	0.00×
Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$19.32	0.4%	0	6.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$19.29	0.2%	0	3.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$18.52	0.2%	0	3.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$17.75	0.3%	0	4.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$17.75	0.2%	0	3.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$14.98	0.2%	0	3.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$13.82	0.1%	0	2.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$13.66	0.2%	0	3.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$12.94	0.2%	0	3.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 140	$12.51	0.1%	0	2.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 140	$12.44	0.1%	0	2.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 140	$12.39	0.1%	0	2.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 140	$12.12	0.1%	0	2.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 112	$12.07	0.1%	0	3.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$5.91	0.1%	0	2.6	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 84	$3.92	0.1%	0	4.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$2.78	0.0%	0	2.6	0.00×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 112	$2.14	0.0%	0	3.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 140	$2.04	0.0%	0	2.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$1.70	0.0%	0	2.6	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 84	$1.58	0.0%	0	4.3	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 112	$1.58	0.0%	0	3.3	0.00×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 112	$1.48	0.0%	0	3.3	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 112	$1.24	0.0%	0	3.3	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 112	$1.24	0.0%	0	3.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$1.18	0.0%	0	2.6	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 112	$1.14	0.0%	0	3.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 140	$1.03	0.0%	0	2.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 140	$0.81	0.0%	0	2.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$0.80	0.0%	0	2.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 140	$0.70	0.0%	0	2.6	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 84	$0.67	0.0%	0	4.3	0.00×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 112	$0.67	0.0%	0	3.3	0.00×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 112	$0.49	0.0%	0	3.3	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/gambit-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Golden Coilweapon · red$88.03$66.270.75x37m

AWP | Pink DDPATweapon · restricted$88.03$36.550.42x37m

FAMAS | Bad Tripweapon · red$88.03$58.210.66x37m

M4A1-S | Night Terrorweapon · violetliv$88.03$1.080.01x37m

★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert$88.03$65.250.74x2h

AWP | Pit Viperweapon · violet$88.03$1.300.01x2h

XM1014 | Solitudeweapon · restrictedChrasťoušekS$88.03$1.190.01x2h

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragonweapon · classified$88.03$24.640.28x2h

P250 | Splashweapon · violet$88.03$37.880.43x2h

M4A1-S | Golden Coilweapon · redChrasťoušekS$88.03$66.270.75x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$88.03	87.50%	82
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$88.50	87.50%	82
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$88.31	87.50%	82
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$88.58	87.50%	82
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$88.53	87.50%	82
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$87.88	87.50%	82
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$88.58	87.50%	82
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$88.16	87.50%	82
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$89.24	87.50%	82
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$89.54	87.50%	82
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$88.36	87.50%	82
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$89.11	87.50%	82
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$89.70	87.50%	82

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 28.9%classified 23.4%Ancient 3.0%violet 13.9%restricted 14.2%red 4.8%uncommon 1.8%Covert 0.9%Classified 0.9%pink 0.7%Mythical 3.3%#8847ff 4.3%best hit —