JAHREIN

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$15.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $13.13 from 57 items

Observed RTP, 30d

82.42%

7,669 openings, odds method

Variance

4.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

64.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

82.52%±14.53889 openings

7 days

82.47%±5.426,543 openings

30 days

82.42%±5.017,669 openings

since tracking started

82.42%±5.017,669 openings

67.5%82.5%97.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.47% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (77.41% – 87.43%, 7,669 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	889	82.52%±14.5	−0.7σ	odds
7d	6,543	82.47%±5.42	−1.8σ	odds
30d	7,669	82.42%±5.01	−2.0σ	odds
All	7,669	82.42%±5.01	−2.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values57 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,682 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 50,000	$3,139	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33,333	$2,799	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 20,000	$2,286	0.9%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,353	1.0%	0	0.8	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$663	0.5%	1	0.8	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$571	0.4%	0	0.8	—
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 159	$56.52	2.7%	57	48.4	1.18×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 159	$54.84	2.6%	0	48.4	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 152	$53.77	2.7%	0	50.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 204	$53.32	2.0%	0	37.6	0.00×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 139	$51.50	2.8%	0	55.3	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 128	$44.56	2.6%	0	59.9	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$44.12	2.7%	0	61.5	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 116	$42.49	2.8%	0	66.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 105	$38.45	2.8%	0	73.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$35.83	2.9%	0	81.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare	1 in 36	$32.02	6.8%	0	214.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$24.08	4.9%	0	206.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$23.06	4.5%	0	196.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 38	$22.66	4.6%	0	203.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$22.47	3.2%	0	144.4	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 40	$20.78	4.0%	0	193.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$20.00	4.1%	0	209.0	0.00×
AWP \| The End (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 34	$19.29	4.3%	0	222.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 44	$18.23	3.2%	0	174.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 244	$17.47	0.5%	0	31.5	0.00×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$15.80	5.0%	0	320.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 82	$14.21	1.3%	0	93.7	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$13.94	1.7%	0	122.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 78	$13.05	1.3%	0	99.1	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 57	$13.02	1.7%	0	135.2	0.00×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$12.10	1.8%	0	152.9	0.00×
AWP \| The End (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$11.25	2.0%	0	175.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 333	$10.36	0.2%	0	23.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 370	$9.49	0.2%	0	20.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 417	$9.03	0.2%	0	18.4	0.00×
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$8.50	1.3%	0	155.2	0.00×
MP7 \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$8.49	1.3%	0	155.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 23	$7.42	2.4%	337	327.3	1.03×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 137	$6.91	0.4%	0	56.1	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 51	$5.74	0.9%	0	151.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 69	$4.24	0.5%	0	110.6	0.00×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 32	$4.11	1.0%	0	242.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 65	$4.06	0.5%	0	117.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 65	$4.01	0.5%	0	119.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 125	$3.79	0.2%	0	61.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 80	$3.73	0.4%	0	96.0	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 58	$3.27	0.4%	0	131.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$2.65	0.4%	0	155.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 45	$2.46	0.4%	0	172.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 66	$2.40	0.3%	0	116.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 48	$1.90	0.3%	0	161.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 48	$1.90	0.3%	0	161.3	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$1.61	1.0%	637	603.8	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 28	$1.50	0.4%	0	276.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Directive (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$1.38	0.4%	0	311.1	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$1.33	0.6%	0	457.8	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/jahrein, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert$15.00$64843.23x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Dualityweapon · pinkB3nzil$15.00$4.740.32x8m

Glock-18 | Ifrit Latticeweapon · violetB3nzil$15.00$4.150.28x19m

USP-S | Monster Mashupweapon · pinkB3nzil$15.00$24.451.63x19m

USP-S | Jawbreakerweapon · pinkB3nzil$15.00$4.490.30x19m

AWP | The Endweapon · pink$15.00$15.751.05x43m

Desert Eagle | Directiveweapon · violet$15.00$1.710.11x43m

R8 Revolver | Amber Fadeweapon · classified$15.00$1.760.12x43m

AK-47 | Elite Buildweapon · blueKrisZach$15.00$2.490.17x43m

M4A4 | Cyber Securityweapon · pink$15.00$21.631.44x43m

USP-S | Monster Mashupweapon · pink$15.00$24.451.63x43m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC	$15.00	87.50%	57
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$15.00	87.50%	57
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$15.00	87.34%	57
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$15.00	87.49%	57
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$15.00	87.52%	57
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$15.00	87.41%	57
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$15.00	87.48%	57
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$15.00	87.41%	57
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$15.00	87.62%	57
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$15.00	87.44%	57
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$15.00	87.61%	57
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$15.00	87.42%	57
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$15.00	87.29%	57
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$15.00	87.23%	57
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$15.00	87.63%	57
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$15.00	87.63%	57
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$15.00	87.61%	57
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$15.00	87.75%	57

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.7%#ffd700 0.6%Ancient 0.6%red 6.1%classified 22.5%rare 2.8%pink 24.3%#eb4b4b 2.3%violet 10.3%restricted 4.3%mil spec 2.3%blue 6.4%Classified 2.0%milspec 0.8%Rare 1.5%#8847ff 11.5%best hit $648 (43.23x)