RISKY

A case on Casehug (CREATORS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$200.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $175.01 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.03%

2,068 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.14%±12.23340 openings

7 days

88.48%±5.231,880 openings

30 days

88.03%±4.992,068 openings

since tracking started

88.03%±4.992,068 openings

78.5%91.3%104.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	340	91.14%±12.2	+0.6σ	odds
7d	1,880	88.48%±5.23	+0.3σ	odds
30d	2,068	88.03%±4.99	+0.1σ	odds
All	2,068	88.03%±4.99	+0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,068 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$9,792	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 50,000	$9,628	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$7,031	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$5,630	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested)gloves · legendary	1 in 3,333	$4,017	0.7%	0	0.6	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · legendary · Sapphire	1 in 1,250	$1,607	0.7%	1	1.7	0.60×
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$1,337	0.7%	1	1.9	0.54×
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 909	$1,053	0.7%	1	2.3	0.44×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 667	$797	0.7%	5	3.1	1.61×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 48	$637	7.6%	40	43.0	0.93×
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 45	$603	7.6%	44	45.5	0.97×
AWP \| LongDog (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 556	$560	0.6%	0	3.7	0.00×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 10	$484	27.5%	214	205.6	1.04×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · sunny · Phase 3	1 in 24	$266	6.3%	88	86.0	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 323	$241	0.4%	0	6.4	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 22	$240	6.3%	89	95.1	0.94×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$237	0.8%	0	12.4	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 19	$208	6.3%	125	109.8	1.14×
AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 78	$162	1.2%	0	26.7	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 20	$152	4.3%	95	101.3	0.94×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 99	$150	0.9%	0	20.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 95	$146	0.9%	0	21.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 88	$138	0.9%	0	23.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 83	$133	0.9%	0	24.8	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 46	$114	1.4%	0	44.7	0.00×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 18	$105	3.4%	127	117.5	1.08×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 17	$90.45	3.1%	121	124.7	0.97×
AWP \| Crakow! (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 233	$85.50	0.2%	0	8.9	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 52	$80.23	0.9%	0	39.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$75.96	0.6%	0	28.5	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 48	$75.01	0.9%	0	43.4	0.00×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny	1 in 25	$73.65	1.7%	0	82.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 67	$71.51	0.6%	0	31.0	0.00×
AWP \| LongDog (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 22	$66.60	1.7%	0	92.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$65.71	0.6%	0	34.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 58	$65.16	0.6%	0	35.4	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 38	$64.43	1.0%	0	53.8	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 62	$64.08	0.6%	0	33.3	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$60.74	0.5%	0	27.1	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 56	$59.20	0.6%	0	37.2	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 72	$58.55	0.5%	0	28.5	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 54	$58.20	0.6%	0	38.1	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 53	$57.22	0.6%	0	39.1	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$55.92	0.5%	0	30.4	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$53.73	0.5%	0	32.3	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$53.21	0.5%	0	32.7	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 97	$46.16	0.3%	0	21.3	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$27.19	0.3%	0	44.5	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 34	$21.89	0.4%	0	60.2	0.00×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 29	$19.60	0.4%	0	70.3	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/risky, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AK-47 | Wild Lotusweapon · redGilathiss$200$6,59032.95x17h

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · legendary · Sapphire$200$1,6628.31x6d

★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$200$1,3306.65x1d

★ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epicBERKAY$200$1,0545.27x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$200$8264.13x5d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covertLiszka9$200$8244.12x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$200$8194.10x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$200$7973.99x17h

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert$200$7823.91x3d

★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$200$6443.22x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Player Twoweapon · red$200$77.270.39x3m

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$200$4842.42x3m

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertMosQuit$200$4842.42x3m

AWP | Neo-Noirweapon · redhasanis$200$56.230.28x16m

★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$200$4842.42x21m

AWP | Neo-Noirweapon · red$200$56.230.28x21m

AWP | Crakow!weapon · pinkMosQuit$200$27.530.14x21m

AWP | LongDogweapon · covert$200$1020.51x21m

M4A1-S | Player Twoweapon · red$200$77.270.39x21m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$200	87.50%	50
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$200	87.73%	50
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$200	87.49%	50
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$200	87.57%	50
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$200	87.49%	50
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$200	87.57%	50
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$200	87.94%	50
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$200	88.00%	50
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$200	87.58%	50
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$200	88.00%	50
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$200	87.70%	50
7 Nov, 05:08 UTC	$200	87.58%	50
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$200	87.85%	50
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$200	87.78%	50
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$200	87.97%	50
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$200	87.78%	50
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$200	87.63%	50
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$200	88.01%	50
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$200	87.63%	50
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$200	87.87%	50
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$200	88.01%	50
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$200	87.60%	50
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$200	87.59%	50
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$200	87.60%	50
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$200	87.51%	50

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 55.3%legendary 0.1%epic 0.1%red 3.5%sunny 13.0%gold 8.3%rare 10.1%extraordinary 2.2%Immortal 1.8%pink 2.1%uncommon 3.4%best hit $6,590 (32.95x)