RISKY JOKER
A case on Casehug, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.
Price
$1,365.79
Advertised RTP
90.50%
EV $1,236.04 from 50 items
Observed RTP, 30d
104.45%
721 openings, odds method
Variance
3.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.52% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.51% – 117.38%, 721 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 815 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
casehug:cases/risky-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.50%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC | $1,366 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 UTC | $1,368 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 10 Nov, 02:18 UTC | $1,375 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 9 Nov, 14:10 UTC | $1,383 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 17:31 UTC | $1,382 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $1,384 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 7 Nov, 11:11 UTC | $1,394 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $1,397 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $1,397 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 4 Nov, 22:36 UTC | $1,398 | 90.50% | 50 |
| 3 Nov, 22:42 UTC | $1,397 | 90.50% | 50 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 56.9%legendary 8.3%epic 4.2%red 3.9%sunny 10.4%gold 6.3%rare 5.3%extraordinary 2.1%Immortal 1.0%pink 0.8%uncommon 0.8%best hit $9,868 (7.06x)