SAVANNA

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$2.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $1.75 from 106 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.13%

13.9K openings, odds method

Variance

2.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

63.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.97%±6.991,828 openings

7 days

87.46%±2.7912.2K openings

30 days

87.13%±2.6113.9K openings

since tracking started

87.13%±2.6113.9K openings

83.5%91.0%98.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,828	90.97%±6.99	+1.0σ	odds
7d	12.2K	87.46%±2.79	+0.1σ	odds
30d	13.9K	87.13%±2.61	−0.2σ	odds
All	13.9K	87.13%±2.61	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values106 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13.9K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$282	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$156	0.3%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$143	0.2%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 33,333	$137	0.2%	0	0.4	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$128	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33,333	$122	0.2%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 16,667	$88.63	0.3%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 12,500	$74.10	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$60.74	0.2%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$58.55	0.2%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$55.92	0.2%	0	0.7	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$53.73	0.2%	0	0.8	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$53.21	0.2%	0	0.8	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 16,667	$37.10	0.1%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 16,667	$36.49	0.1%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 12,500	$36.38	0.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14,286	$36.22	0.1%	0	1.0	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 11,111	$33.54	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 9,091	$31.20	0.2%	0	1.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 7,692	$28.60	0.2%	0	1.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$23.75	0.2%	0	2.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 6,667	$23.20	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 6,667	$23.01	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$21.70	0.2%	0	2.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$20.53	0.2%	0	2.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 5,556	$20.03	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 5,556	$19.97	0.2%	0	2.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$18.75	0.2%	0	2.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 4,348	$17.12	0.2%	0	3.2	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 10,000	$14.77	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$14.67	0.2%	0	2.6	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 4,545	$13.85	0.2%	0	3.1	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 4,348	$13.37	0.2%	0	3.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$13.36	0.1%	0	2.5	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 3,571	$12.07	0.2%	0	3.9	0.00×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 5,000	$10.52	0.1%	0	2.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 3,030	$9.80	0.2%	0	4.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 3,030	$9.75	0.2%	0	4.6	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$9.67	0.1%	0	2.5	0.00×
P250 \| Epicenter (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 5,000	$9.58	0.1%	0	2.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 2,564	$8.89	0.2%	0	5.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,000	$8.86	0.1%	0	2.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,545	$8.17	0.1%	0	3.1	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 3,030	$7.99	0.2%	0	4.6	0.00×
AWP \| PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,176	$6.98	0.3%	0	11.8	0.00×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 352	$6.32	1.0%	0	39.6	0.00×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 338	$6.19	1.0%	0	41.2	0.00×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 328	$6.10	1.1%	0	42.5	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 292	$5.78	1.1%	0	47.6	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 350	$5.57	0.9%	0	39.8	0.00×
P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 296	$5.37	1.0%	0	47.1	0.00×
P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 286	$5.28	1.1%	0	48.8	0.00×
P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 271	$5.14	1.1%	0	51.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 299	$4.85	0.9%	0	46.7	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 120	$4.80	2.3%	0	115.8	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 85	$4.76	3.2%	0	164.8	0.00×
AWP \| Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 174	$4.62	1.5%	0	80.0	0.00×
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 735	$4.42	0.3%	0	18.9	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 92	$4.38	2.7%	0	151.4	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 91	$4.36	2.7%	0	152.8	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 94	$4.24	2.6%	0	148.5	0.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 97	$4.23	2.5%	0	143.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 95	$4.19	2.5%	0	146.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 95	$4.19	2.5%	0	146.6	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 84	$4.01	2.7%	0	165.8	0.00×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 146	$3.76	1.5%	0	95.2	0.00×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 82	$3.17	2.2%	0	169.8	0.00×
AWP \| Worm God (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$2.77	3.2%	0	279.2	0.00×
AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$2.72	3.2%	0	289.4	0.00×
AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 55	$2.57	2.7%	0	255.5	0.00×
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$2.57	2.7%	0	252.7	0.00×
AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$2.51	2.8%	0	267.9	0.00×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 51	$2.48	2.8%	0	274.3	0.00×
XM1014 \| Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 12	$2.40	11.1%	1,148	1124.5	1.02×
MP7 \| Guerrilla (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 123	$2.31	1.1%	0	113.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 109	$1.96	1.0%	0	127.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 98	$1.86	1.1%	0	142.0	0.00×
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$1.68	1.4%	0	200.5	0.00×
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$1.58	1.4%	0	220.0	0.00×
AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$1.58	3.6%	605	561.7	1.08×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 513	$1.42	0.2%	0	27.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 65	$1.41	1.2%	0	215.0	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Gauss (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 136	$1.16	0.5%	0	102.1	0.00×
MP7 \| Guerrilla (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 85	$0.98	0.7%	0	163.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.80	0.6%	0	167.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.80	0.6%	0	167.7	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Gauss (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$0.70	0.6%	0	217.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$0.67	0.6%	0	218.9	0.00×
MP7 \| Guerrilla (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 48	$0.67	0.8%	0	288.8	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Gauss (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$0.67	0.6%	0	232.7	0.00×
MP7 \| Guerrilla (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 47	$0.66	0.8%	0	295.4	0.00×
USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$0.60	0.6%	0	258.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 134	$0.58	0.2%	0	103.8	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Gauss (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$0.57	0.7%	0	296.5	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 68	$0.55	0.5%	0	203.5	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 54	$0.47	0.5%	0	257.5	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 54	$0.47	0.5%	0	257.5	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 62	$0.46	0.4%	0	223.3	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 56	$0.43	0.4%	0	247.0	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 44	$0.41	0.5%	0	316.1	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 45	$0.37	0.5%	0	309.4	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 40	$0.34	0.5%	0	351.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 52	$0.31	0.3%	0	265.4	0.00×
AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	10.3%	$0.24	1.4%	1,409	1441.3	0.98×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common	1 in 29	$0.21	0.4%	0	476.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 27	$0.20	0.4%	0	516.0	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/savanna, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fireweapon · red$2.00$16682.86x5d

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fireweapon · redOtwieracz Do Piwa CS2.ME$2.00$16079.93x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M249 | Emerald Poison Dartweapon · violet$2.00$1.980.99x7m

USP-S | Flashbackweapon · restricted$2.00$0.790.40x7m

AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedJanusz SNAX “skins.army”$2.00$1.580.79x7m

XM1014 | Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff$2.00$2.401.20x9m

MP7 | Guerrillaweapon · blue$2.00$0.940.47x9m

AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedDiscoSurik$2.00$1.580.79x9m

AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$2.00$0.240.12x12m

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstreamweapon · blue$2.00$0.470.24x12m

AWP | PAWweapon · violetMaybe skins$2.00$2.711.36x12m

M249 | Emerald Poison Dartweapon · violet$2.00$1.980.99x13m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$2.00	87.50%	106
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$2.00	87.23%	106
10 Nov, 08:21 UTC	$2.00	87.54%	106
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$2.00	87.85%	106
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$2.00	87.54%	106
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC	$2.00	87.27%	106
9 Nov, 02:04 UTC	$2.00	87.20%	106
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$2.00	87.27%	106
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$2.00	87.20%	106
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.00	87.25%	106
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$2.00	87.26%	106
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$2.00	87.79%	106
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$2.00	87.26%	106
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$2.00	87.53%	106
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.00	87.21%	106
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.00	86.23%	106
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC	$2.00	87.33%	106
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$2.00	87.79%	106
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.00	87.15%	106
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$2.00	87.33%	106
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$2.00	87.15%	106
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$2.00	87.54%	106
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$2.00	87.30%	106

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%red 0.0%pink 4.2%classified 3.2%restricted 27.0%violet 2.1%Legendary 2.1%uncommon 1.6%#8847ff 12.3%#d32ce6 1.9%Classified 1.0%Mythical 2.7%blue 17.8%Rare 0.7%#4b69ff 7.5%mil spec 2.3%industrial 10.3%common 3.4%best hit $166 (82.86x)