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SAVANNA JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price
$20.76
Advertised RTP
87.50%
EV $18.16 from 106 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.22%
4,823 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.4%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
73.79%±14.97557 openings
7 days
81.93%±5.673,896 openings
30 days
81.22%±5.084,823 openings
since tracking started
81.22%±5.084,823 openings
58.0%73.8%89.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.58% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.14% – 86.30%, 4,823 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h55773.79%±15.0−1.8σodds
7d3,89681.93%±5.67−1.9σodds
30d4,82381.22%±5.08−2.5σodds
All4,82381.22%±5.08−2.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values106 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,827 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 140$27510.8%034.50.00×
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 140$1546.1%034.50.00×
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 140$1485.8%034.50.00×
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 140$1385.4%034.50.00×
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 140$1365.3%034.50.00×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 84$1228.0%057.40.00×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 84$81.465.3%057.40.00×
AK-47 | Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 84$79.095.2%057.50.00×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 140$58.812.3%034.50.00×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 140$58.342.3%034.50.00×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 140$55.862.2%034.50.00×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 140$53.852.1%034.50.00×
AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 140$51.262.0%034.50.00×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 112$36.151.8%043.10.00×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 112$35.971.8%043.10.00×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 112$35.831.8%043.10.00×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 112$34.151.7%043.10.00×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 112$32.021.6%043.10.00×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 112$31.381.5%043.10.00×
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 112$31.331.5%043.10.00×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 112$23.061.1%043.10.00×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 112$22.661.1%043.10.00×
USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 112$22.471.1%043.10.00×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 112$20.721.0%043.10.00×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 112$20.051.0%043.10.00×
Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 112$19.981.0%043.10.00×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 112$19.741.0%043.10.00×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 112$19.300.9%043.10.00×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 112$18.020.9%043.10.00×
MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 112$14.080.7%043.10.00×
R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 112$13.940.7%043.10.00×
R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 112$13.340.7%043.10.00×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 112$13.160.6%043.10.00×
R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 112$13.110.6%043.10.00×
R8 Revolver | Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 112$13.020.6%043.10.00×
FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 112$10.520.5%043.10.00×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 112$10.110.5%043.10.00×
AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 112$9.860.5%043.10.00×
P250 | Epicenter (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon1 in 112$9.610.5%043.10.00×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 112$9.250.5%043.10.00×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 112$9.130.4%043.10.00×
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 112$8.950.4%043.10.00×
MP7 | Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon1 in 112$8.180.4%043.10.00×
USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 112$8.060.4%043.10.00×
AWP | PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 140$7.570.3%034.50.00×
FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 112$6.180.3%043.10.00×
FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 112$6.140.3%043.10.00×
FAMAS | Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 112$6.040.3%043.10.00×
MP7 | Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon1 in 112$5.770.3%043.10.00×
AWP | Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 112$5.420.3%043.10.00×
P250 | Epicenter (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 112$5.320.3%043.10.00×
P250 | Epicenter (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce61 in 112$5.230.3%043.10.00×
P250 | Epicenter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 112$5.160.3%043.10.00×
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 140$4.900.2%034.50.00×
M4A1-S | Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 112$4.650.2%043.10.00×
AWP | Worm God (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 112$4.590.2%043.10.00×
AWP | Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 112$4.530.2%043.10.00×
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 112$4.510.2%043.10.00×
MP7 | Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon1 in 112$4.480.2%043.10.00×
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 112$4.330.2%043.10.00×
AWP | Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 112$4.240.2%043.10.00×
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary1 in 112$4.180.2%043.10.00×
USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 112$4.160.2%043.10.00×
USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 112$3.980.2%043.10.00×
USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified1 in 112$3.900.2%043.10.00×
AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 140$3.730.1%034.50.00×
AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 112$3.170.2%043.10.00×
AWP | Worm God (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 112$2.950.1%043.10.00×
AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 112$2.750.1%043.10.00×
M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 84$2.570.2%057.40.00×
AWP | PAW (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 140$2.540.1%034.50.00×
AWP | PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 140$2.510.1%034.50.00×
AWP | PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 140$2.480.1%034.50.00×
XM1014 | Solitude (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 28$2.420.5%171172.40.99×
MP7 | Guerrilla (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 112$2.310.1%043.10.00×
M4A1-S | Solitude (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 112$1.910.1%043.10.00×
M4A1-S | Solitude (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 112$1.880.1%043.10.00×
M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 84$1.680.1%057.50.00×
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 28$1.610.3%177172.41.03×
M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 84$1.550.1%057.50.00×
Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 140$1.530.1%034.50.00×
M4A1-S | Solitude (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce61 in 112$1.410.1%043.10.00×
MP5-SD | Gauss (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 112$1.160.1%043.10.00×
MP7 | Guerrilla (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 112$0.980.0%043.10.00×
USP-S | Flashback (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 140$0.890.0%034.50.00×
USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 140$0.800.0%034.50.00×
MP7 | Guerrilla (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 112$0.730.0%043.10.00×
MP5-SD | Gauss (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 112$0.670.0%043.10.00×
MP5-SD | Gauss (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 112$0.660.0%043.10.00×
USP-S | Flashback (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 140$0.640.0%034.50.00×
MP5-SD | Gauss (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 112$0.640.0%043.10.00×
USP-S | Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 140$0.630.0%034.50.00×
MP7 | Guerrilla (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue1 in 112$0.630.0%043.10.00×
Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 140$0.580.0%034.50.00×
PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 112$0.550.0%043.10.00×
PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 112$0.470.0%043.10.00×
PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 112$0.470.0%043.10.00×
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 112$0.460.0%043.10.00×
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Well-Worn)weapon · blue1 in 112$0.430.0%043.10.00×
PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 112$0.410.0%043.10.00×
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 112$0.370.0%043.10.00×
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 112$0.350.0%043.10.00×
Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 140$0.320.0%034.50.00×
AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 28$0.240.0%185172.41.07×
Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested)weapon · common1 in 140$0.210.0%034.50.00×
Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 140$0.200.0%034.50.00×
Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/savanna-joker, 11 Nov, 20:45 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$20.76$1.610.08x
AWP | Atherisweapon · restricted$20.76$6.010.29x
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01weapon · violet$20.76$32.671.57x
AWP | Neo-Noirweapon · redM3L3R$20.76$55.622.68x
R8 Revolver | Bone Forgedweapon · blueuno dos tres cuatro$20.76$0.400.02x
AWP | Atherisweapon · restricted$20.76$6.010.29x
AK-47 | Orbit Mk01weapon · violet$20.76$32.671.57x
P250 | Epicenterweapon · pink$20.76$6.330.30x
USP-S | Monster Mashupweapon · pinkkieron$20.76$26.001.25x
Galil AR | Chromatic Aberrationweapon · pinkWATERHEAD PEAK$20.76$5.490.26x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 20:45 UTC$20.7687.50%106
11 Nov, 14:41 UTC$20.8487.52%106
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$20.9987.48%106
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$20.8487.52%106
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC$20.9987.48%106
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC$20.9087.50%106
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC$20.9987.51%106
9 Nov, 08:07 UTC$21.1587.52%106
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC$21.1087.51%106
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC$21.0987.51%106
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$20.8787.51%106
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC$21.0187.51%106
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC$21.0987.51%106
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC$21.0187.51%106
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC$21.0187.49%106
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$20.8787.51%106
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$20.8387.51%106
5 Nov, 10:43 UTC$20.8887.48%106
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC$20.9187.51%106
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC$20.8387.57%106
4 Nov, 04:46 UTC$20.9187.51%106
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC$21.0887.50%106
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC$20.9787.50%106
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 8.8%red 1.9%pink 12.5%restricted 23.7%classified 13.4%violet 3.6%Legendary 3.6%uncommon 3.6%#8847ff 7.0%#d32ce6 1.8%Classified 0.9%Mythical 1.4%blue 9.6%Rare 0.7%#4b69ff 2.3%mil spec 0.9%industrial 3.6%common 0.7%best hit —