STRATY

A case on Casehug (CREATORS FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$10.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $8.75 from 71 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.61%

9,183 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

22.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

83.05%±7.061,225 openings

7 days

87.33%±2.698,266 openings

30 days

86.61%±2.559,183 openings

since tracking started

86.61%±2.559,183 openings

75.5%83.3%91.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,225	83.05%±7.06	−1.3σ	odds
7d	8,266	87.33%±2.69	−0.2σ	odds
30d	9,183	86.61%±2.55	−0.8σ	odds
All	9,183	86.61%±2.55	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values71 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,202 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 50,000	$1,023	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 33,333	$759	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 10,000	$371	0.4%	0	0.9	—
P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50,000	$341	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · gold · Phase 1	1 in 7,692	$266	0.4%	2	1.2	1.67×
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$230	0.1%	0	0.4	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$210	0.1%	0	0.5	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$206	0.1%	0	0.5	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 20,000	$201	0.1%	0	0.5	—
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,263	$176	0.4%	1	1.7	0.57×
Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$174	0.4%	0	1.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 16,667	$150	0.1%	0	0.6	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 25,000	$149	0.1%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 16,667	$146	0.1%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 14,286	$138	0.1%	0	0.6	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 14,286	$133	0.1%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$75.96	0.1%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 33,333	$74.10	0.0%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$71.51	0.1%	0	1.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$65.16	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$63.82	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,000	$62.01	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 4,348	$57.58	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$54.89	0.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$51.04	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 5,556	$46.69	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,000	$43.39	0.1%	0	1.8	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$41.83	0.2%	0	3.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,556	$40.79	0.1%	0	1.7	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 4,348	$40.36	0.1%	0	2.1	0.00×
P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 2,174	$39.59	0.2%	0	4.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 4,762	$38.10	0.1%	0	1.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 45	$37.36	9.4%	0	202.7	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 103	$35.89	4.0%	0	89.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 88	$33.26	4.3%	0	104.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 239	$23.61	1.1%	0	38.6	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 254	$21.97	1.0%	0	36.2	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 35	$20.66	6.7%	282	260.4	1.08×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$16.00	1.4%	0	68.1	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 265	$15.80	0.7%	0	34.8	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 105	$15.65	1.7%	0	87.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 103	$15.51	1.7%	0	89.2	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 251	$15.41	0.7%	0	36.7	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$15.10	1.4%	0	76.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 97	$15.02	1.8%	0	95.2	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 119	$15.02	1.4%	0	77.3	0.00×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 12	$14.72	14.0%	0	766.1	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$14.23	4.3%	0	245.8	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$13.57	5.8%	0	344.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 15	$9.77	7.6%	0	629.3	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 61	$8.49	1.6%	0	151.1	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$8.31	1.6%	0	155.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 73	$7.97	1.3%	0	126.3	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$7.05	1.7%	0	196.0	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 47	$7.02	1.7%	0	196.6	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$6.85	1.7%	0	203.4	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 45	$6.84	1.7%	0	204.5	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 45	$6.79	1.7%	0	206.6	0.00×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 44	$6.76	1.7%	0	207.2	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 65	$6.18	1.1%	0	141.5	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$5.12	1.5%	0	234.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 39	$5.10	1.5%	0	235.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 34	$4.61	1.6%	0	271.7	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 36	$4.08	1.3%	0	252.9	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$3.64	1.3%	0	296.7	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$3.60	1.3%	0	301.3	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$1.32	0.2%	0	132.5	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 24	$0.61	0.3%	0	390.3	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.43	0.3%	0	636.8	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.42	0.3%	0	658.1	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$0.41	0.3%	0	680.1	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/straty, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Loreknife · sunnyKirkieszko I$10.00$85385.33x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Fever Dreamweapon · pink$10.00$15.111.51x7m

Sawed-Off | Analog Inputweapon · violet$10.00$0.500.05x7m

UMP-45 | Wild Childweapon · pinktivson$10.00$6.110.61x7m

AK-47 | Phantom Disruptorweapon · pink$10.00$9.840.98x8m

UMP-45 | Wild Childweapon · pink$10.00$6.110.61x8m

AWP | Fever Dreamweapon · pinkSoBoL BuK$10.00$15.111.51x8m

Sawed-Off | Analog Inputweapon · violet$10.00$0.500.05x10m

Dual Berettas | Melondramaweapon · pinkSoBoL BuK$10.00$7.590.76x10m

AWP | Fever Dreamweapon · pink$10.00$15.111.51x14m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$10.00	87.50%	71
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$10.00	87.82%	71
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$10.00	87.52%	71
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$10.00	87.95%	71
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$10.00	87.48%	71
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$10.00	87.95%	71
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$10.00	87.48%	71
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$10.00	87.93%	71
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$10.00	87.75%	71
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$10.00	87.55%	71
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$10.00	87.68%	71
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$10.00	87.50%	71
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$10.00	87.68%	71
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$10.00	87.50%	71
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$10.00	87.77%	71
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$10.00	87.48%	71
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$10.00	87.77%	71
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$10.00	87.78%	71
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$10.00	87.56%	71
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$10.00	88.07%	71
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$10.00	87.56%	71

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%gold 0.0%mil spec 2.9%#eb4b4b 0.0%classified 18.4%red 2.2%Covert 0.0%Ancient 2.2%blue 0.0%Legendary 10.6%pink 28.5%#d32ee6 3.9%Classified 3.9%restricted 1.4%violet 25.7%best hit $853 (85.33x)