VAC ATTACK

A case on Casehug (REGULAR CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$85.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $74.37 from 80 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.53%

2,041 openings, odds method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.77%±12.86271 openings

7 days

84.37%±5.071,733 openings

30 days

85.53%±4.672,041 openings

since tracking started

85.53%±4.672,041 openings

67.5%81.0%94.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	271	80.77%±12.9	−1.0σ	odds
7d	1,733	84.37%±5.07	−1.2σ	odds
30d	2,041	85.53%±4.67	−0.9σ	odds
All	2,041	85.53%±4.67	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values80 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,042 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$2,262	0.6%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,500	$1,719	0.9%	0	0.8	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,111	$825	1.0%	1	1.8	0.54×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$616	0.7%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 658	$481	1.0%	2	3.1	0.64×
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 490	$357	1.0%	4	4.2	0.96×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 68	$316	6.2%	9	30.0	0.30×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 439	$293	0.9%	0	4.7	0.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 61	$285	6.2%	30	33.2	0.90×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 893	$269	0.4%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 490	$256	0.7%	0	4.2	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 54	$252	6.2%	52	37.7	1.38×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 322	$200	0.8%	0	6.4	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 51	$176	4.6%	52	39.7	1.31×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 240	$172	1.0%	0	8.5	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 565	$159	0.4%	0	3.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 204	$156	1.0%	0	10.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 170	$156	1.2%	0	12.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 149	$146	1.3%	0	13.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 172	$143	1.1%	0	11.9	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 41	$140	4.6%	64	49.8	1.29×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$139	1.4%	0	15.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 157	$137	1.2%	0	13.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 192	$137	1.0%	0	10.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 176	$131	1.0%	0	11.6	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 137	$128	1.3%	0	14.9	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 279	$128	0.6%	0	7.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 115	$126	1.5%	0	17.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$124	1.9%	0	23.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 107	$122	1.5%	0	19.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 76	$115	2.1%	0	27.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 143	$109	1.0%	0	14.3	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 22	$109	6.5%	96	91.0	1.06×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 22	$106	6.5%	103	93.5	1.10×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 59	$103	2.3%	0	34.4	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 167	$90.82	0.7%	0	12.2	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 24	$83.95	4.8%	0	86.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 14	$74.67	7.1%	0	145.2	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$71.74	7.4%	0	156.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 230	$65.16	0.4%	0	8.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 206	$60.74	0.4%	0	9.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 88	$57.58	0.9%	0	23.1	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 239	$55.72	0.3%	0	8.6	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 177	$54.96	0.4%	0	11.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 297	$54.89	0.2%	0	6.9	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 227	$54.01	0.3%	0	9.0	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 172	$53.92	0.4%	0	11.9	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 229	$46.69	0.3%	0	8.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 599	$45.59	0.1%	0	3.4	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 166	$44.40	0.4%	0	12.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 204	$43.39	0.3%	0	10.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 182	$40.36	0.3%	0	11.2	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 833	$34.78	0.1%	0	2.5	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 781	$32.30	0.1%	0	2.6	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 820	$31.82	0.1%	0	2.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 599	$24.97	0.1%	0	3.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 193	$22.44	0.2%	0	10.6	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 268	$17.07	0.1%	0	7.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 422	$15.92	0.1%	0	4.8	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 258	$15.36	0.1%	0	7.9	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 104	$15.18	0.2%	0	19.7	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$14.82	0.2%	0	20.5	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 224	$14.77	0.1%	0	9.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 98	$14.67	0.2%	0	20.8	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 92	$8.73	0.1%	0	22.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 109	$8.58	0.1%	0	18.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 146	$8.18	0.1%	0	14.0	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 84	$7.99	0.1%	0	24.3	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 79	$7.34	0.1%	0	25.8	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 75	$7.10	0.1%	0	27.2	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 61	$6.74	0.1%	0	33.6	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 50	$5.78	0.2%	0	40.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 56	$5.69	0.1%	0	36.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 56	$5.66	0.1%	0	36.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 49	$5.20	0.1%	0	41.8	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 37	$4.76	0.2%	0	55.6	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$4.43	0.2%	0	65.7	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 25	$3.56	0.2%	0	82.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 22	$2.51	0.2%	0	92.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$2.33	0.2%	0	104.5	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/vac-attack, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covertBERKAY$85.00$88610.43x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Containment Breachweapon · red$85.00$71.760.84x30s

AK-47 | Head Shotweapon · red-m1soqq$85.00$84.851.00x30s

★ Shadow Daggers | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$85.00$1091.28x13m

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny$85.00$2853.36x13m

Desert Eagle | Printstreamweapon · red$85.00$56.670.67x13m

★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covertliv$85.00$1401.64x13m

MP7 | Smoking Killsweapon · pink$85.00$6.900.08x59m

AWP | Containment Breachweapon · red$85.00$71.760.84x59m

MP7 | Smoking Killsweapon · pinkCICINKA67CS2.ME$85.00$6.900.08x59m

AWP | Containment Breachweapon · red$85.00$71.760.84x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$85.00	87.50%	80
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$85.00	87.48%	80
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$85.00	87.34%	80
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$85.00	87.49%	80
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$85.00	87.52%	80
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$85.00	87.40%	80
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$85.00	87.52%	80
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$85.00	87.61%	80
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$85.00	87.54%	80
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$85.00	87.46%	80
6 Nov, 17:00 UTC	$85.00	87.46%	80
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$85.00	87.66%	80
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$85.00	87.71%	80
4 Nov, 14:13 UTC	$85.00	87.70%	80
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$85.00	87.33%	80
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$85.00	87.67%	80
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$85.00	87.31%	80
2 Nov, 22:28 UTC	$85.00	87.67%	80
2 Nov, 21:50 UTC	$85.00	87.29%	80
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$85.00	87.67%	80

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 46.2%#ffd700 0.2%epic 1.5%sunny 1.6%red 1.2%gold 4.6%Ancient 2.2%Covert 1.6%classified 2.7%pink 10.1%rare 1.6%uncommon 7.9%Mythical 5.4%#d32ce6 7.7%Legendary 0.4%violet 5.2%best hit $886 (10.43x)