VAC ATTACK JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$357.65

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $312.94 from 80 items

Observed RTP, 30d

119.12%

129 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

82.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

17 openings · below min

7 days

119.12%±24.33129 openings

30 days

119.12%±24.33129 openings

since tracking started

119.12%±24.33129 openings

61.5%129.5%197.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 87.57% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.79% – 143.45%, 129 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	17	129.59%±67.4	—	odds
7d	129	119.12%±24.3	+2.5σ	odds
30d	129	119.12%±24.3	+2.5σ	odds
All	129	119.12%±24.3	+2.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values80 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 147 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$2,262	25.8%	11	5.2	2.10×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$1,719	19.6%	6	5.2	1.14×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 28	$825	9.4%	6	5.2	1.14×
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 28	$616	7.0%	6	5.2	1.14×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 28	$481	5.5%	6	5.2	1.14×
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$357	4.1%	5	5.2	0.95×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 28	$316	3.6%	4	5.2	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$293	0.8%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 28	$285	3.3%	4	5.2	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$269	0.6%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$256	0.6%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$252	2.9%	2	5.2	0.38×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$200	0.6%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$176	2.0%	4	5.2	0.76×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$172	0.5%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$159	0.4%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$156	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$156	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$146	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$143	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 28	$140	1.6%	5	5.2	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$139	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 112	$137	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$137	0.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$131	0.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$128	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$128	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$126	0.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$124	0.4%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$122	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$115	0.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$109	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 28	$109	1.2%	4	5.2	0.76×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 28	$106	1.2%	2	5.3	0.38×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 56	$103	0.6%	0	2.6	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$90.82	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$83.95	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$74.67	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$71.74	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$65.16	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$60.74	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 56	$57.58	0.3%	0	2.6	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$55.72	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$54.96	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$54.89	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$54.01	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 112	$53.92	0.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 140	$46.69	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 140	$45.59	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 140	$44.40	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 140	$43.39	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 140	$40.36	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$34.78	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 140	$32.30	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 140	$31.82	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$24.97	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 140	$22.44	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 140	$17.07	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 112	$15.92	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 140	$15.36	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 140	$15.18	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 140	$14.82	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 140	$14.77	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$14.67	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$8.73	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$8.58	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 112	$8.18	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 140	$7.99	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 140	$7.34	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn)weapon · rare	1 in 140	$7.10	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 140	$6.74	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 140	$5.78	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$5.69	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$5.66	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 140	$5.20	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 140	$4.76	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 140	$4.43	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 140	$3.56	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 112	$2.51	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 112	$2.33	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/vac-attack-joker, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$367$2,2926.24x2d

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$367$2,2926.24x4d

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertSPARKY$367$2,2926.24x4d

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$367$2,2926.24x4d

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$367$2,2916.24x5d

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert_quot;S_quot; KING$365$2,2696.21x1d

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$358$2,2626.32x14h

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertcode VESU$368$2,2376.08x6d

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$368$2,2376.07x8d

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert愛$362$2,2356.17x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Containment Breachweapon · red$358$77.080.22x14h

M4A1-S | Chantico's Fireweapon · red$358$1410.40x14h

AK-47 | The Empressweapon · redgrochalek$358$1550.43x14h

★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$358$1,7194.81x14h

★ Karambit | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$358$2,2626.32x14h

AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covertgrochalek$358$6161.72x14h

AK-47 | The Empressweapon · red$358$1550.43x14h

Desert Eagle | Mulberryweapon · violet$358$7.240.02x14h

M4A1-S | Golden Coilweapon · redgrochalek$358$1160.32x14h

AK-47 | Fuel Injectorweapon · red$361$1510.42x14h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$358	87.50%	80
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$361	87.50%	80
10 Nov, 02:18 UTC	$365	87.50%	80
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$362	87.50%	80
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$364	87.50%	80
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$367	87.50%	80
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$362	87.50%	80
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$367	87.50%	80
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$367	87.50%	80
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$368	87.50%	80
5 Nov, 04:40 UTC	$369	87.50%	80
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$368	87.50%	80

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 57.7%#ffd700 3.6%epic 3.6%sunny 3.6%red 1.6%gold 3.6%Ancient 2.5%Covert 2.5%classified 2.9%pink 5.7%rare 2.1%uncommon 3.6%Mythical 1.8%#d32ce6 2.9%Legendary 0.7%violet 1.8%best hit $2,292 (6.24x)