ZURYS

A case on Casehug (CREATORS FARM), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$30.00

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $26.25 from 84 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.71%

5,339 openings, odds method

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

62.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.08%±14.82517 openings

7 days

89.08%±5.244,427 openings

30 days

88.71%±4.805,339 openings

since tracking started

88.71%±4.805,339 openings

72.5%88.0%103.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	517	88.08%±14.8	+0.1σ	odds
7d	4,427	89.08%±5.24	+0.6σ	odds
30d	5,339	88.71%±4.80	+0.5σ	odds
All	5,339	88.71%±4.80	+0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values84 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,353 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$2,233	0.9%	3	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$1,408	0.5%	0	0.5	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 3,333	$1,086	1.2%	1	1.6	0.62×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$1,021	0.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 2,000	$595	1.1%	1	2.7	0.37×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,429	$429	1.1%	5	3.7	1.33×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$298	0.1%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$256	0.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 3,333	$193	0.2%	0	1.6	0.00×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$184	0.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$159	0.1%	0	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$155	0.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$152	0.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$150	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 1,667	$150	0.3%	0	3.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$147	0.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,429	$138	0.4%	0	3.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,250	$137	0.4%	0	4.3	0.00×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,500	$135	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 2,500	$134	0.2%	0	2.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,429	$133	0.4%	0	3.7	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,111	$131	0.4%	0	4.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,429	$129	0.3%	0	3.7	0.00×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 2,000	$122	0.2%	0	2.7	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 119	$112	3.6%	0	45.0	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 233	$104	1.7%	0	23.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 217	$96.95	1.7%	0	24.6	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 526	$89.88	0.7%	0	10.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 149	$88.63	2.3%	0	35.9	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 294	$85.27	1.1%	0	18.2	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$83.95	1.6%	0	26.8	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$80.83	5.5%	0	95.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 108	$75.44	2.7%	0	49.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 125	$74.10	2.3%	0	42.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 115	$71.37	2.4%	0	46.6	0.00×
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 75	$68.04	3.4%	0	71.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 196	$63.72	1.2%	0	27.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$62.75	2.4%	0	53.5	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 93	$60.80	2.5%	0	57.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 94	$60.80	2.5%	0	56.7	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 39	$58.58	5.8%	0	138.1	0.00×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 76	$58.14	2.9%	0	70.1	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 104	$55.72	2.0%	0	51.4	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 98	$54.01	2.1%	0	54.6	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 152	$44.91	1.1%	0	35.3	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 103	$44.40	1.6%	0	51.9	0.00×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$44.35	3.4%	0	107.6	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 145	$44.05	1.2%	0	36.9	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 133	$42.23	1.2%	0	40.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 133	$42.00	1.2%	0	40.1	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 125	$40.71	1.2%	0	42.8	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 118	$39.47	1.3%	0	45.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 250	$38.69	0.6%	0	21.4	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 109	$38.14	1.3%	0	49.2	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 106	$37.68	1.3%	0	50.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 61	$37.47	2.4%	0	88.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$37.36	2.4%	0	88.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$34.04	5.6%	220	231.8	0.95×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 41	$28.92	2.7%	0	130.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 111	$24.24	0.8%	0	48.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 109	$23.85	0.8%	0	49.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 103	$23.13	0.9%	0	51.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 97	$22.11	0.9%	0	55.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 96	$17.61	0.7%	0	55.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 256	$14.54	0.2%	0	20.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 62	$12.81	0.8%	0	86.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 625	$12.47	0.1%	0	8.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 52	$11.32	0.8%	0	103.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 85	$6.69	0.3%	0	62.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 38	$5.66	0.6%	0	139.7	0.00×
MP7 \| Amberline (Factory New)weapon · 3	1 in 109	$5.16	0.2%	0	49.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 54	$4.80	0.3%	0	99.6	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 52	$4.67	0.3%	0	103.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 50	$4.57	0.3%	0	106.5	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 92	$4.41	0.2%	0	58.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 112	$3.64	0.1%	0	47.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$3.23	0.7%	0	306.2	0.00×
MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 32	$2.13	0.3%	0	169.7	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 27	$1.85	0.3%	0	196.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 31	$1.45	0.2%	0	174.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$1.39	0.2%	0	184.7	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$1.16	0.2%	0	237.7	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 14	$1.13	0.3%	0	391.8	0.00×
MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 12	$1.10	0.3%	0	430.9	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/zurys, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$30.00$2,23974.63x2d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$30.00$2,23974.63x4d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$30.00$2,23774.56x3d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungleweapon · redRAGNAR$30.00$1,14338.09x7d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungleweapon · red$30.00$1,14338.09x7d

★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$30.00$1,10136.71x3d

★ Survival Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · RubyKrisZach$30.00$61120.37x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Bleeding Edgeweapon · restricted$30.00$3.990.13x23m

AWP | Chromatic Aberrationweapon · red_Mefju_$30.00$44.391.48x23m

AWP | Chromatic Aberrationweapon · red$30.00$44.391.48x23m

AWP | Chromatic Aberrationweapon · red_Mefju_$30.00$44.391.48x23m

USP-S | Bleeding Edgeweapon · restricted$30.00$3.990.13x59m

M4A4 | Turbineweapon · violet$30.00$1.630.05x59m

M4A4 | Tooth Fairyweapon · classifiedfranio.locals CS2.ME$30.00$5.520.18x59m

AK-47 | Legion of Anubisweapon · red$30.00$44.751.49x1h

USP-S | Bleeding Edgeweapon · restricted$30.00$3.990.13x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$30.00	87.50%	84
10 Nov, 14:25 UTC	$30.00	87.86%	84
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$30.00	87.05%	84
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$30.00	87.77%	84
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$30.00	87.39%	84
8 Nov, 17:31 UTC	$30.00	87.23%	84
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$30.00	87.30%	84
7 Nov, 23:20 UTC	$30.00	87.44%	84
7 Nov, 17:16 UTC	$30.00	87.30%	84
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$30.00	87.36%	84
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$30.00	87.32%	84
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$30.00	87.96%	84
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$30.00	87.61%	84
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$30.00	87.34%	84
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$30.00	87.53%	84
3 Nov, 16:38 UTC	$30.00	87.17%	84
3 Nov, 15:55 UTC	$30.00	87.39%	84
3 Nov, 10:08 UTC	$30.00	87.17%	84
3 Nov, 09:33 UTC	$30.00	87.10%	84
2 Nov, 21:41 UTC	$30.00	87.17%	84

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 0.9%covert 13.3%legendary 0.1%red 5.9%#eb4b4b 0.1%Ancient 4.6%classified 12.3%rare 2.4%Legendary 3.6%uncommon 4.0%#d32ee6 2.1%pink 4.9%#8847ff 3.8%Classified 1.9%Mythical 8.3%violet 19.0%restricted 12.7%best hit $2,239 (74.63x)