ZURYS JOKER

A case on Casehug, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Casehug's own item price.

Price

$297.49

Advertised RTP

87.50%

EV $260.30 from 84 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.58%

249 openings, odds method

Variance

2.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 11

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

18 openings · below min

7 days

78.65%±21.92220 openings

30 days

76.58%±20.61249 openings

since tracking started

76.58%±20.61249 openings

-0.5%55.8%112.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18	34.67%±76.8	—	odds
7d	220	78.65%±21.9	−0.8σ	odds
30d	249	76.58%±20.6	−1.0σ	odds
All	249	76.58%±20.6	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values84 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 316 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 27	$2,234	31.8%	5	11.7	0.43×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$1,408	10.0%	0	5.8	0.00×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 27	$1,086	15.5%	14	11.7	1.20×
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$1,030	7.3%	0	5.9	0.00×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 27	$595	8.5%	13	11.7	1.11×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 27	$429	6.1%	11	11.7	0.94×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$300	1.4%	0	3.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$256	1.2%	0	3.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$193	0.7%	0	2.9	0.00×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$184	0.5%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$156	0.6%	0	2.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$152	0.5%	0	2.9	0.00×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$150	0.4%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 81	$149	0.7%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$147	0.4%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 81	$141	0.7%	0	3.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$140	0.7%	0	3.9	0.00×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$135	0.4%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$135	0.5%	0	2.9	0.00×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 135	$134	0.4%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 81	$133	0.6%	0	3.9	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$132	0.6%	0	3.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$131	0.6%	0	3.9	0.00×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 135	$122	0.3%	0	2.3	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 54	$112	0.8%	0	5.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$104	0.4%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$96.07	0.5%	0	3.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$89.73	0.3%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 108	$87.98	0.3%	0	2.9	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$85.27	0.2%	0	2.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$82.12	0.4%	0	3.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 108	$78.31	0.3%	0	2.9	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$76.80	0.2%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 108	$76.39	0.3%	0	2.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 108	$73.30	0.3%	0	2.9	0.00×
AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$69.87	0.5%	0	5.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 135	$64.28	0.2%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$62.75	0.2%	0	2.9	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$60.80	0.2%	0	2.9	0.00×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 54	$60.24	0.4%	0	5.9	0.00×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 54	$58.14	0.4%	0	5.9	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$55.28	0.2%	0	2.3	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$54.01	0.2%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$52.26	0.2%	0	2.9	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$47.41	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 135	$44.72	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$44.42	0.3%	0	5.9	0.00×
AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$43.22	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 135	$42.23	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 135	$42.00	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 135	$41.10	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$39.37	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 108	$39.31	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 135	$38.62	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 81	$37.47	0.2%	0	3.9	0.00×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 135	$35.37	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 27	$33.90	0.5%	12	11.7	1.03×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 81	$32.56	0.2%	0	3.9	0.00×
AUG \| Lil' Pig (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 54	$29.09	0.2%	0	5.9	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 135	$24.97	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 135	$23.85	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 135	$23.72	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 135	$21.57	0.1%	0	2.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 108	$18.24	0.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 135	$14.32	0.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 108	$13.61	0.0%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 135	$12.47	0.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 108	$11.15	0.0%	0	2.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 135	$6.73	0.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 54	$5.69	0.0%	0	5.9	0.00×
MP7 \| Amberline (Factory New)weapon · 3	1 in 81	$5.16	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 135	$4.80	0.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 135	$4.57	0.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 135	$4.51	0.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 81	$4.46	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$3.49	0.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 54	$3.00	0.0%	0	5.9	0.00×
MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 81	$2.13	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 81	$2.03	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$1.36	0.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 135	$1.32	0.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 135	$1.16	0.0%	0	2.3	0.00×
MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 81	$1.10	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
MP9 \| Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 81	$1.09	0.0%	0	3.9	0.00×

Values are Casehug's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from casehug:cases/zurys-joker, 11 Nov, 14:41 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$300$2,2417.46x8d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$300$2,2397.47x2d

★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyMAJSZI$297$2,2347.51x1d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungleweapon · red$300$1,2204.07x2d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungleweapon · red_quot;S_quot; KING$300$1,2204.06x8d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungleweapon · red$300$1,2204.06x8d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungleweapon · redBubson$301$1,2104.02x5d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungleweapon · redRysiu$302$1,2104.01x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | Redlineweapon · pink愛$296$56.360.19x26m

AK-47 | Legion of Anubisweapon · red愛$296$46.400.16x26m

USP-S | Kill Confirmedweapon · red愛$296$1650.56x26m

AK-47 | Nightwishweapon · red愛$296$78.050.26x26m

AWP | Chromatic Aberrationweapon · red愛$296$50.420.17x26m

AK-47 | The Empressweapon · red愛$297$1760.59x26m

AK-47 | Legion of Anubisweapon · red愛$297$46.290.16x26m

AK-47 | Red Laminateweapon · pink愛$297$69.990.24x26m

Glock-18 | Water Elementalweapon · pink愛$297$36.750.12x26m

AWP | Redlineweapon · pink愛$297$57.150.19x26m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:31 UTC	$297	87.50%	84
9 Nov, 20:14 UTC	$298	87.50%	84
9 Nov, 14:10 UTC	$300	87.50%	84
8 Nov, 23:35 UTC	$300	87.50%	84
7 Nov, 11:11 UTC	$299	87.50%	84
6 Nov, 23:04 UTC	$298	87.50%	84
6 Nov, 10:57 UTC	$299	87.50%	84
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$301	87.50%	84
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$302	87.50%	84
4 Nov, 22:36 UTC	$301	87.50%	84
3 Nov, 22:42 UTC	$303	87.50%	84

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed3 1.2%covert 39.3%legendary 3.7%red 10.2%#eb4b4b 0.7%Ancient 5.3%classified 12.6%rare 2.8%Legendary 3.1%uncommon 2.8%#d32ee6 1.5%pink 2.2%#8847ff 2.0%Classified 0.9%Mythical 3.7%violet 5.2%restricted 2.7%best hit $2,241 (7.46x)