Battle Flipper
A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$24.26
48.51 coins
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $21.83 from 16 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.85%
276 openings, odds method
Variance
10.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 276 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 14:05 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Tec-9 | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedDemonDeeeeek$24.2648.51 coins$6.3712.73 coins0.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.26 | 90.00% | 16 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.3%other 0.2%sunny 0.5%covert knife 1.5%classified 20.0%mil spec 10.0%Industrial Grade 30.0%#4b69ff 26.5%Mil Spec 10.0%best hit $612 (25.22x)