Lost

A case on Chicken.gg (official), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Chicken.gg's own item price converted from Chicken coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$19.31

38.62 coins

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $17.38 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

107.84%

278 openings, odds method

Variance

11.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 29

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

89.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

126.80%±47.51190 openings

30 days

107.84%±39.27278 openings

since tracking started

107.84%±39.27278 openings

-0.5%175.0%350.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	82.31%±267.3	—	odds
7d	190	126.80%±47.5	+1.5σ	odds
30d	278	107.84%±39.3	+0.9σ	odds
All	278	107.84%±39.3	+0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 278 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 100,000	$8,972 17,944 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$648 1,295 coins	3.7%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$540 1,079 coins	3.1%	1	0.3	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,000	$405 809 coins	2.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 83	$308 616 coins	21.3%	6	3.3	1.80×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 50	$245 491 coins	28.2%	4	5.6	0.72×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 40	$83.53 167 coins	12.0%	13	7.0	1.87×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 40	$78.29 157 coins	11.3%	8	7.0	1.15×
★ Survival Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 40	$65.61 131 coins	9.4%	5	7.0	0.72×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	20.0%	$4.88 9.75 coins	5.6%	51	55.6	0.92×
M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$1.73 3.46 coins	2.0%	62	55.6	1.12×
Nova \| Wild Six (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	49.0%	$0.17 0.35 coins	0.5%	128	136.2	0.94×

Values are Chicken.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from chicken:cases/get-cases, 11 Nov, 08:05 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$19.3138.62 coins$5401,079 coins27.95x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$19.3138.62 coins$0.170.35 coins0.01x16h

M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New)weapon · restrictedMoon1025$19.3138.62 coins$1.733.46 coins0.09x16h

Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$19.3138.62 coins$0.170.35 coins0.01x18h

M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$19.3138.62 coins$4.889.75 coins0.25x18h

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinarypooop$19.3138.62 coins$83.53167 coins4.33x18h

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald (Factory New)gloves · Extraordinary$19.3138.62 coins$245491 coins12.71x1d

Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$19.3138.62 coins$0.170.35 coins0.01x1d

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$19.3138.62 coins$83.53167 coins4.33x1d

Nova | Wild Six (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$19.3138.62 coins$0.170.35 coins0.01x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$19.31	90.00%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.1%covert 1.4%Extraordinary 2.0%extraordinary 2.5%Covert 2.5%Immortal 2.5%classified 20.0%restricted 69.0%best hit $540 (27.95x)