Medusa's Gaze
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$61.29
94.29 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $55.15 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.83%
915 openings, odds method
Variance
12.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 915 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 200 | $2,925 4,500 gems | 26.5% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× |
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $520 800 gems | 9.4% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.98× |
| ★ Talon Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 67 | $401 617 gems | 10.9% | 17 | 13.7 | 1.24× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 1 in 50 | $242 373 gems | 8.8% | 21 | 18.3 | 1.15× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic | 1 in 20 | $133 205 gems | 12.1% | 43 | 45.8 | 0.94× |
| USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $83.66 129 gems | 15.2% | 76 | 91.5 | 0.83× |
| AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 15.0% | $34.76 53.48 gems | 9.5% | 142 | 137.3 | 1.03× |
| MP7 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted | 15.0% | $17.17 26.42 gems | 4.7% | 136 | 137.3 | 0.99× |
| PP-Bizon | Seabird (Factory New)weapon · Common | 20.0% | $7.75 11.93 gems | 2.8% | 180 | 183.0 | 0.98× |
| M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon | 30.0% | $0.31 0.47 gems | 0.2% | 286 | 274.5 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New)weapon · Mythicalmotsibaerli$61.2994.29 gems$34.7653.48 gems0.57x
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$61.2994.29 gems$242373 gems3.96x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $61.29 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 2.5%classified 1.0%gold 1.5%epic 5.0%industrial 10.0%Mythical 15.0%Restricted 15.0%Common 20.0%Uncommon 30.0%best hit $2,925 (47.73x)