CACHORRO1337

A case on csgo.net (Blogger), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$24.99

Advertised RTP

76.58%

EV $19.14 from 44 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.19%

765 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

71 openings · below min

7 days

76.02%±5.11633 openings

30 days

77.19%±4.66765 openings

since tracking started

77.19%±4.66765 openings

50.5%67.8%85.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	71	67.70%±16.5	—	odds
7d	633	76.02%±5.11	−0.5σ	odds
30d	765	77.19%±4.66	−0.1σ	odds
All	765	77.19%±4.66	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values44 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 765 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 194,878	$2,204	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 168,733	$1,149	0.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 114,123	$720	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 77,567	$563	0.0%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 23,708	$335	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20,701	$319	0.1%	1	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20,033	$315	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 11,906	$261	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 11,746	$259	0.1%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,520	$199	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,360	$197	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 4,896	$191	0.2%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 4,892	$191	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 3,523	$171	0.3%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Silk Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,059	$163	0.3%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,735	$156	0.3%	0	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,290	$147	0.3%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,254	$120	0.5%	0	0.6	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 973	$110	0.6%	1	0.8	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 929	$108	0.6%	0	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 849	$105	0.6%	0	0.9	—
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 371	$78.69	1.1%	2	2.1	0.97×
Tec-9 \| Terrace (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 363	$78.07	1.1%	0	2.1	0.00×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 312	$74.01	1.2%	2	2.5	0.82×
Desert Eagle \| Pilot (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 288	$71.95	1.3%	0	2.7	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 249	$68.32	1.4%	1	3.1	0.33×
Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 242	$67.61	1.5%	3	3.2	0.95×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 228	$66.21	1.5%	0	3.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 121	$52.68	2.3%	2	6.3	0.32×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 110	$50.73	2.4%	2	7.0	0.29×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$39.83	3.5%	12	13.0	0.92×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 56	$39.17	3.6%	15	13.6	1.10×
M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$36.80	4.0%	14	15.9	0.88×
AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$34.37	4.4%	8	18.7	0.43×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$32.71	4.7%	19	20.9	0.91×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 36	$32.43	4.7%	15	21.4	0.70×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 32	$30.73	5.1%	21	24.1	0.87×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 14	$19.63	7.6%	69	56.4	1.22×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$16.58	8.0%	62	70.9	0.87×
P250 \| Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	10.0%	$15.46	8.1%	97	76.7	1.26×
SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	12.5%	$11.69	7.6%	131	95.3	1.37×
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	12.5%	$11.52	7.6%	70	96.0	0.73×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	13.4%	$8.83	6.2%	57	102.4	0.56×
FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	13.4%	$8.76	6.1%	14	102.4	0.14×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified🩶L,E,K,A🩶$24.99$15.310.61x2h

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedfrizy1235$24.99$11.510.46x2h

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryXXXTILTACION$24.99$19.810.79x2h

AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covertXXXTILTACION$24.99$39.731.59x2h

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedXXXTILTACION$24.99$16.580.66x2h

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedXXXTILTACION$24.99$11.510.46x2h

P250 | Mehndi (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedXXXTILTACION$24.99$15.330.61x2h

Five-SeveN | Fairy Tale (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryXXXTILTACION$24.99$19.810.79x2h

P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedXXXTILTACION$24.99$11.510.46x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.58%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$24.99	76.58%	44
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$24.99	76.42%	43
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$24.99	76.40%	44
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$24.99	76.69%	44
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$24.99	77.02%	43
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$24.99	77.04%	42
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$24.99	77.01%	42
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$24.99	77.08%	42
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$24.99	77.14%	42
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$24.99	77.58%	42
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$24.99	77.55%	42
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$24.99	77.54%	42
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$24.99	77.56%	42
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$24.99	77.57%	42
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$24.99	77.57%	42
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$24.99	77.58%	42
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$24.99	77.55%	43
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$24.99	77.56%	43
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$24.99	77.58%	43
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$24.99	77.56%	42
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$24.99	77.50%	43
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$24.99	77.63%	42
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$24.99	77.99%	43
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$24.99	77.99%	43
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$24.99	77.89%	43
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$24.99	77.57%	42
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$24.99	77.67%	43
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$24.99	77.66%	42
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$24.99	77.68%	43
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$24.99	77.65%	43

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 8.7%classified 60.6%rare 0.0%restricted 2.8%extraordinary 0.5%mil spec 0.0%red 3.3%Mil Spec Grade 0.3%#eb4b4b 0.3%Ancient 2.8%Legendary 7.4%violet 13.4%best hit —