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A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$94.99

Advertised RTP

64.50%

EV $61.27 from 106 items

Observed RTP, 30d

74.98%

1,062 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

51 openings · below min

7 days

77.41%±9.10817 openings

30 days

74.98%±8.201,062 openings

since tracking started

74.98%±8.201,062 openings

36.0%73.8%111.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 65.37% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (66.78% – 83.18%, 1,062 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	51	73.78%±37.0	—	odds
7d	817	77.41%±9.10	+2.6σ	odds
30d	1,062	74.98%±8.20	+2.3σ	odds
All	1,062	74.98%±8.20	+2.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values106 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,062 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,997	$7,581	1.2%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,996	$6,771	1.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested)weapon · contraband	1 in 9,986	$4,541	0.7%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 9,978	$3,892	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,951	$2,970	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,882	$2,204	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,226	$1,149	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 8,972	$1,036	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 8,918	$1,016	0.2%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,438	$716	0.2%	1	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,019	$667	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,954	$569	0.2%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,270	$518	0.2%	0	0.2	—
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 4,466	$464	0.2%	1	0.2	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 2,396	$335	0.2%	1	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,128	$243	0.4%	2	0.9	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 956	$227	0.4%	0	1.1	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 767	$208	0.4%	1	1.4	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · epic	1 in 735	$204	0.5%	3	1.4	2.08×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 692	$199	0.5%	2	1.5	1.30×
M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 626	$191	0.5%	2	1.7	1.18×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 520	$177	0.6%	0	2.0	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 475	$171	0.6%	4	2.2	1.79×
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 438	$165	0.6%	0	2.4	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 435	$164	0.6%	1	2.4	0.41×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 417	$162	0.6%	2	2.5	0.79×
AK-47 \| Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 387	$156	0.7%	2	2.7	0.73×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 280	$136	0.8%	3	3.8	0.79×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 213	$120	0.9%	7	5.0	1.40×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 198	$116	1.0%	7	5.4	1.30×
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 196	$115	1.0%	6	5.4	1.11×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 189	$113	1.0%	8	5.6	1.43×
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 183	$111	1.0%	10	5.8	1.73×
AWP \| CMYK (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 182	$111	1.0%	6	5.8	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 180	$110	1.0%	6	5.9	1.02×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 178	$110	1.0%	1	6.0	0.17×
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 173	$108	1.0%	8	6.1	1.30×
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 171	$107	1.0%	8	6.2	1.28×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 163	$105	1.1%	11	6.5	1.69×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 160	$104	1.1%	6	6.6	0.90×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 152	$101	1.1%	1	7.0	0.14×
FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 148	$99.71	1.1%	1	7.2	0.14×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 146	$98.94	1.1%	13	7.3	1.79×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 142	$97.36	1.1%	13	7.5	1.74×
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 136	$95.26	1.1%	7	7.8	0.90×
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 135	$94.63	1.1%	9	7.9	1.14×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 133	$93.88	1.2%	8	8.0	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 128	$91.77	1.2%	6	8.3	0.72×
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 113	$85.35	1.2%	6	9.4	0.64×
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 106	$81.94	1.3%	6	10.0	0.60×
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 101	$79.15	1.3%	4	10.5	0.38×
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 99	$78.23	1.3%	3	10.7	0.28×
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 99	$77.97	1.3%	7	10.7	0.65×
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 98	$77.59	1.3%	7	10.8	0.65×
AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 97	$76.70	1.3%	1	11.0	0.09×
P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 95	$75.79	1.3%	13	11.2	1.16×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 94	$75.38	1.3%	14	11.2	1.25×
AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 94	$75.08	1.3%	12	11.3	1.06×
CZ75-Auto \| Victoria (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 93	$74.39	1.3%	13	11.4	1.14×
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 92	$74.01	1.3%	12	11.5	1.04×
Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 89	$72.12	1.3%	14	11.9	1.17×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 87	$70.56	1.3%	16	12.2	1.31×
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 80	$65.68	1.3%	14	13.3	1.05×
AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 78	$64.52	1.3%	18	13.6	1.33×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 77	$63.34	1.3%	15	13.8	1.08×
AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 74	$61.12	1.3%	7	14.3	0.49×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 74	$60.93	1.3%	16	14.4	1.11×
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 70	$57.58	1.3%	18	15.1	1.19×
AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 70	$56.89	1.3%	0	15.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$56.56	1.3%	23	15.3	1.50×
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 66	$53.04	1.3%	15	16.1	0.93×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 66	$52.68	1.3%	12	16.1	0.74×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$51.77	1.3%	10	16.3	0.61×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 65	$51.36	1.3%	17	16.4	1.04×
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$51.14	1.3%	16	16.4	0.97×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 64	$50.73	1.3%	15	16.5	0.91×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 63	$48.57	1.3%	17	16.9	1.01×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Minimal Wear)weapon · uncommon	1 in 61	$45.94	1.2%	0	17.3	0.00×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$44.54	1.2%	15	17.5	0.86×
M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 60	$43.24	1.2%	12	17.7	0.68×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$41.54	1.1%	26	17.9	1.45×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 59	$40.63	1.1%	17	18.0	0.95×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$39.83	1.1%	20	18.0	1.11×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$39.83	1.1%	16	18.0	0.89×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$39.17	1.1%	26	18.1	1.44×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$38.24	1.1%	15	18.1	0.83×
Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 59	$37.55	1.0%	18	18.1	0.99×
AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 59	$36.29	1.0%	25	18.1	1.38×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$35.81	1.0%	15	18.1	0.83×
AWP \| LongDog (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 59	$35.04	1.0%	26	18.1	1.43×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 59	$33.55	0.9%	16	18.1	0.89×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$33.46	0.9%	24	18.1	1.33×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 59	$32.87	0.9%	11	18.0	0.61×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$32.71	0.9%	13	18.0	0.72×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 59	$32.57	0.9%	11	18.0	0.61×
AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 59	$32.43	0.9%	10	18.0	0.56×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 59	$31.85	0.9%	17	17.9	0.95×
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 59	$31.18	0.9%	4	17.9	0.22×
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 60	$30.73	0.8%	25	17.8	1.40×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 60	$30.47	0.8%	5	17.8	0.28×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$30.45	0.8%	13	17.8	0.73×
Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 60	$30.13	0.8%	0	17.7	0.00×
FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$29.56	0.8%	4	17.6	0.23×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 60	$29.25	0.8%	6	17.6	0.34×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 61	$28.62	0.8%	17	17.5	0.97×
M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 61	$28.60	0.8%	1	17.5	0.06×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covertIGROGAME$94.99$7,68880.93x6d

AWP | The Prince (Field-Tested)weapon · covertrina$94.99$1,75518.47x6d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · covertIGROGAME$94.99$6897.26x5d

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covertB4RMEN$94.99$5625.91x12h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertGlobe$94.99$39.880.42x1h

MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covertHeraclius II$94.99$29.870.31x2h

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert240 km/h peek хасбулла$94.99$39.860.42x2h

P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covertSEvER$94.99$94.721.00x2h

M4A4 | In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientSEvER$94.99$31.690.33x2h

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Field-Tested)weapon · covertLoading...$94.99$77.710.82x2h

AWP | Sovereign Flame (Well-Worn)weapon · redLoading...$94.99$75.110.79x2h

AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · AncientLoading...$94.99$31.830.34x2h

PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertLoading...$94.99$1121.18x2h

USP-S | The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · redLoading...$94.99$30.560.32x2h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 64.50%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$94.99	64.50%	106
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$94.99	64.35%	106
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$94.99	64.34%	106
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$94.99	64.59%	105
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$94.99	64.87%	106
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$94.99	64.87%	106
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$94.99	64.86%	105
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$94.99	64.91%	104
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$94.99	64.97%	105
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$94.99	65.33%	104
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$94.99	65.31%	104
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$94.99	65.30%	104
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$94.99	65.33%	105
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$94.99	65.33%	102
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$94.99	65.33%	102
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$94.99	65.33%	104
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$94.99	65.31%	104
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$94.99	65.32%	105
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$94.99	65.33%	104
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$94.99	65.33%	104
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$94.99	65.27%	103
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$94.99	65.37%	102
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$94.99	65.67%	103
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$94.99	65.68%	102
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$94.99	65.60%	102
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$94.99	65.33%	102
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$94.99	65.41%	103
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$94.99	65.41%	102
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$94.99	65.41%	102
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$94.99	65.39%	102

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 58.0%contraband 0.0%epic 0.1%red 18.6%#eb4b4b 1.1%Covert 1.1%rare 2.9%Ancient 16.6%uncommon 1.6%best hit $7,688 (80.93x)