CS2 knife

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$339.00

Advertised RTP

67.14%

EV $227.59 from 93 items

Observed RTP, 30d

65.89%

241 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

87.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

25 openings · below min

7 days

62.01%±6.74171 openings

30 days

65.89%±5.65241 openings

since tracking started

65.89%±5.65241 openings

46.5%64.8%83.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	25	64.64%±17.5	—	odds
7d	171	62.01%±6.74	−1.7σ	odds
30d	241	65.89%±5.65	−0.7σ	odds
All	241	65.89%±5.65	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values93 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 241 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 4,158	$1,996	0.2%	1	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,759	$1,885	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,907	$1,650	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 2,706	$1,594	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 2,339	$1,489	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,676	$1,286	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,539	$1,240	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,288	$1,151	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 1,029	$1,050	0.4%	1	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 938	$1,011	0.5%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 771	$933	0.5%	0	0.3	—
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 623	$855	0.6%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 600	$842	0.6%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 557	$817	0.6%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 515	$791	0.7%	0	0.5	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 515	$791	0.7%	0	0.5	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 504	$784	0.7%	0	0.5	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 412	$720	0.8%	0	0.6	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 343	$666	0.9%	0	0.7	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 340	$663	0.9%	0	0.7	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 298	$626	0.9%	2	0.8	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 247	$575	1.0%	0	1.0	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 228	$553	1.1%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 187	$502	1.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 182	$495	1.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 170	$478	1.2%	1	1.4	0.70×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 146	$441	1.3%	1	1.6	0.61×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 146	$440	1.3%	3	1.7	1.81×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 138	$427	1.4%	1	1.7	0.57×
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 134	$421	1.4%	1	1.8	0.56×
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 121	$395	1.4%	0	2.0	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 118	$388	1.4%	0	2.0	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 109	$370	1.5%	1	2.2	0.45×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 104	$357	1.5%	3	2.3	1.29×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 102	$353	1.5%	2	2.4	0.85×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 95	$336	1.5%	1	2.5	0.40×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 95	$335	1.5%	2	2.5	0.79×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 92	$327	1.6%	2	2.6	0.77×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 86	$310	1.6%	0	2.8	0.00×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 78	$283	1.6%	4	3.1	1.30×
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 77	$279	1.6%	2	3.1	0.64×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 77	$277	1.6%	3	3.1	0.95×
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 76	$273	1.6%	0	3.2	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 74	$267	1.6%	1	3.2	0.31×
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 74	$264	1.6%	1	3.3	0.31×
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 73	$262	1.6%	2	3.3	0.61×
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 73	$260	1.6%	4	3.3	1.21×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 72	$257	1.6%	2	3.4	0.60×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 72	$255	1.6%	4	3.4	1.19×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 69	$245	1.6%	4	3.5	1.15×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 68	$237	1.5%	1	3.5	0.28×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 66	$228	1.5%	3	3.6	0.83×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$218	1.5%	1	3.7	0.27×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 65	$216	1.5%	1	3.7	0.27×
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$216	1.5%	5	3.7	1.34×
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 63	$201	1.4%	3	3.8	0.78×
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 62	$196	1.4%	3	3.9	0.78×
★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 62	$195	1.4%	2	3.9	0.52×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 62	$193	1.4%	5	3.9	1.29×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 62	$192	1.4%	9	3.9	2.32×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 62	$191	1.4%	4	3.9	1.03×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 62	$191	1.4%	3	3.9	0.77×
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 61	$184	1.3%	0	3.9	0.00×
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 61	$177	1.3%	5	3.9	1.27×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 61	$176	1.3%	1	3.9	0.25×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 61	$169	1.2%	1	4.0	0.25×
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 61	$161	1.2%	2	4.0	0.50×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 61	$157	1.1%	4	4.0	1.01×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 61	$156	1.1%	0	4.0	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 61	$156	1.1%	4	4.0	1.01×
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 61	$148	1.1%	6	3.9	1.53×
★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 61	$148	1.1%	1	3.9	0.25×
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 61	$147	1.1%	5	3.9	1.27×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 62	$145	1.0%	9	3.9	2.30×
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 62	$141	1.0%	2	3.9	0.51×
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 62	$140	1.0%	6	3.9	1.54×
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 62	$140	1.0%	0	3.9	0.00×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 63	$132	0.9%	1	3.8	0.26×
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 63	$131	0.9%	6	3.8	1.57×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 63	$129	0.9%	5	3.8	1.31×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 64	$127	0.9%	4	3.8	1.06×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 64	$125	0.9%	6	3.8	1.59×
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 64	$124	0.9%	4	3.8	1.06×
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 64	$123	0.8%	4	3.7	1.07×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$122	0.8%	1	3.7	0.27×
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 65	$121	0.8%	4	3.7	1.08×
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 65	$120	0.8%	4	3.7	1.08×
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 65	$118	0.8%	4	3.7	1.09×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 66	$114	0.8%	1	3.6	0.28×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 67	$113	0.7%	2	3.6	0.55×
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 68	$109	0.7%	2	3.6	0.56×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 68	$109	0.7%	2	3.6	0.56×
★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 68	$108	0.7%	1	3.5	0.28×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnyIGROGAME$339$2,0496.04x2d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700inho$339$1,1573.41x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertinho$339$1,1243.32x8d

★ Karambit | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covertinho$339$8742.58x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardenedknife · rareReserva$339$6892.03x8d

★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertihuntnoobs$339$6681.97x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertinho$339$6031.78x8d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertLoading...$339$2620.77x3h

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700JPCadeirante-.$339$2280.67x4h

★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rareJPCadeirante-.$339$1460.43x4h

★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epicJPCadeirante-.$339$4791.41x4h

★ Stiletto Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertJPCadeirante-.$339$2400.71x4h

★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertJPCadeirante-.$339$2190.65x4h

★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rareJPCadeirante-.$339$1460.43x4h

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · CovertJPCadeirante-.$339$1090.32x4h

★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertJPCadeirante-.$339$1180.35x4h

★ Classic Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertJPCadeirante-.$339$1570.46x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 67.14%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$339	67.14%	93
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$339	66.98%	95
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$339	66.97%	96
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$339	67.22%	95
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$339	67.52%	94
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$339	67.53%	95
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$339	67.51%	94
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$339	67.57%	94
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$339	67.63%	94
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$339	68.01%	94
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$339	67.98%	94
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$339	67.97%	93
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$339	68.00%	93
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$339	68.00%	94
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$339	68.00%	94
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$339	68.01%	93
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$339	67.98%	93
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$339	67.99%	94
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$339	68.00%	94
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$339	68.00%	94
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$339	67.94%	95
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$339	68.05%	95
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$339	68.36%	94
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$339	68.36%	94
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$339	68.28%	95
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$339	68.01%	95
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$339	68.09%	95
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$339	68.08%	94
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$339	68.09%	94
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$339	68.06%	94

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 12.6%covert 60.7%gold 1.1%#ffd700 2.6%covert knife 10.1%epic 4.3%legendary 0.7%rare 3.3%Immortal 1.6%Covert 3.0%best hit $2,049 (6.04x)