Moon

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$6.79

Advertised RTP

76.16%

EV $5.17 from 48 items

Observed RTP, 30d

—

no counted openings

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

79.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

No counted openings yetOpenings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	—	—	—
7d	—	—	—
30d	—	—	—
All	—	—	—

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values48 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Hot / cold
AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 179,875	$464	0.0%	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 82,936	$199	0.0%	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 71,352	$184	0.0%	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 66,510	$177	0.1%	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 61,677	$171	0.1%	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 57,421	$165	0.1%	—
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 54,940	$162	0.1%	—
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 36,363	$135	0.1%	—
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 27,978	$122	0.1%	—
MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 24,191	$115	0.1%	—
PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 22,144	$111	0.1%	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 21,555	$110	0.1%	—
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 21,305	$110	0.1%	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 17,103	$101	0.1%	—
AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 13,894	$93.93	0.1%	—
Sawed-Off \| The Kraken (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 8,095	$77.59	0.2%	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,831	$76.70	0.2%	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,599	$68.27	0.2%	—
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 3,238	$56.56	0.3%	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,107	$55.77	0.3%	—
USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 2,817	$53.93	0.4%	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,629	$52.68	0.4%	—
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,609	$44.54	0.5%	—
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Needle Point (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,415	$42.63	0.6%	—
P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,189	$40.17	0.7%	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,160	$39.83	0.7%	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,029	$38.24	0.7%	—
P250 \| Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 982	$37.63	0.7%	—
AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 704	$33.57	0.9%	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 698	$33.46	0.9%	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 545	$30.73	1.1%	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 531	$30.45	1.1%	—
M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 392	$27.41	1.4%	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 115	$17.70	3.0%	—
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 110	$17.39	3.1%	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 44	$12.23	5.4%	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$11.97	5.5%	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$11.83	5.6%	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 39	$11.63	5.8%	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$10.15	6.9%	—
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$9.52	7.5%	—
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	10.1%	$5.67	11.0%	—
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	12.2%	$4.78	11.3%	—
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	15.5%	$3.06	9.1%	—
AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	15.5%	$2.74	8.2%	—
MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	10.4%	$1.20	2.4%	—
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$1.02	1.8%	—
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 16	$0.68	0.8%	—

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

No history yet

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$6.79	76.16%	48
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$6.79	76.01%	48
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$6.79	75.99%	48
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$6.79	76.29%	48
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$6.79	76.60%	48
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$6.79	76.64%	48
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$6.79	76.60%	48
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$6.79	76.68%	48
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$6.79	76.74%	48
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$6.79	77.15%	48
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$6.79	77.12%	48
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$6.79	77.11%	48
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$6.79	77.16%	48
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$6.79	77.16%	48
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$6.79	77.14%	48
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	77.16%	48
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	77.15%	48
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$6.79	77.17%	48
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$6.79	77.16%	48
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$6.79	77.15%	48
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$6.79	77.08%	48
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$6.79	77.20%	48
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$6.79	77.57%	48
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$6.79	77.58%	48
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$6.79	77.48%	48
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$6.79	77.17%	48
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$6.79	77.26%	48
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$6.79	77.25%	48
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.79	77.26%	48
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$6.79	77.25%	48

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.7%classified 23.2%extraordinary 0.1%pink 0.1%mil spec 0.1%red 0.2%Ancient 0.3%Legendary 2.6%restricted 43.7%violet 22.6%Mythical 6.4%