Нож

A case on csgo.net, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$219.00

Advertised RTP

72.29%

EV $158.32 from 282 items

Observed RTP, 30d

72.75%

1,011 openings, odds method

Variance

0.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

29.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

70.44%±6.24231 openings

7 days

73.09%±3.06969 openings

30 days

72.75%±3.001,011 openings

since tracking started

72.75%±3.001,011 openings

63.5%70.5%77.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	231	70.44%±6.24	−0.6σ	odds
7d	969	73.09%±3.06	+0.2σ	odds
30d	1,011	72.75%±3.00	−0.1σ	odds
All	1,011	72.75%±3.00	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values282 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,013 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 8,962	$1,996	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 8,793	$1,885	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 8,309	$1,650	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 8,160	$1,594	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 7,840	$1,489	0.1%	1	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 7,023	$1,286	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 6,798	$1,240	0.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 6,308	$1,151	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 5,664	$1,050	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 5,396	$1,011	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 4,822	$933	0.1%	2	0.2	—
★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 4,209	$855	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 4,102	$842	0.1%	0	0.2	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,893	$817	0.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,710	$794	0.1%	1	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 3,680	$791	0.1%	1	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 3,680	$791	0.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 3,621	$784	0.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 3,096	$720	0.1%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,965	$704	0.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 2,789	$683	0.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 2,717	$674	0.2%	1	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 2,652	$666	0.2%	1	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 2,629	$663	0.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 2,506	$647	0.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 2,413	$636	0.2%	0	0.4	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,337	$626	0.2%	0	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,120	$597	0.2%	1	0.5	—
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 2,078	$592	0.2%	0	0.5	—
★ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 2,019	$584	0.2%	0	0.5	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,976	$578	0.2%	1	0.5	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,953	$575	0.2%	0	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,896	$567	0.2%	1	0.5	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,841	$559	0.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,830	$558	0.2%	1	0.6	—
★ Karambit \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,798	$553	0.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,793	$553	0.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,732	$544	0.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,664	$534	0.2%	1	0.6	—
★ Karambit \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,478	$506	0.2%	0	0.7	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 1,463	$503	0.2%	0	0.7	—
★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,456	$502	0.2%	1	0.7	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,447	$501	0.2%	0	0.7	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,412	$495	0.2%	1	0.7	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,412	$495	0.2%	0	0.7	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,314	$479	0.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 1,307	$478	0.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Karambit \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,240	$467	0.2%	0	0.8	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 1,174	$455	0.2%	1	0.9	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,142	$450	0.2%	2	0.9	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 1,097	$441	0.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 1,092	$440	0.3%	2	0.9	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,065	$435	0.3%	0	1.0	—
★ Karambit \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 1,043	$431	0.3%	1	1.0	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,030	$429	0.3%	4	1.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 1,020	$427	0.3%	1	1.0	—
★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,004	$424	0.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 1,000	$423	0.3%	1	1.0	0.99×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 990	$421	0.3%	1	1.0	0.98×
★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 989	$421	0.3%	1	1.0	0.98×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 975	$418	0.3%	0	1.0	0.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 919	$407	0.3%	1	1.1	0.91×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 916	$406	0.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 879	$398	0.3%	3	1.2	2.60×
★ Karambit \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 871	$397	0.3%	1	1.2	0.86×
★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 863	$395	0.3%	1	1.2	0.85×
★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 842	$390	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 833	$388	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 810	$383	0.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 760	$372	0.3%	2	1.3	1.50×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 751	$370	0.3%	1	1.3	0.74×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 707	$359	0.3%	1	1.4	0.70×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 696	$357	0.3%	2	1.5	1.37×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 681	$353	0.3%	2	1.5	1.34×
★ Karambit \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 672	$351	0.3%	2	1.5	1.33×
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 645	$344	0.3%	2	1.6	1.27×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 637	$341	0.3%	3	1.6	1.89×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 637	$341	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 615	$336	0.3%	1	1.6	0.61×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 614	$335	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 595	$330	0.4%	1	1.7	0.59×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 595	$330	0.4%	2	1.7	1.17×
★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 585	$327	0.4%	1	1.7	0.58×
★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · covert knife	1 in 555	$319	0.4%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 555	$319	0.4%	2	1.8	1.10×
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 526	$310	0.4%	2	1.9	1.04×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 518	$307	0.4%	0	2.0	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 482	$296	0.4%	1	2.1	0.48×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 445	$283	0.4%	0	2.3	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 439	$281	0.4%	2	2.3	0.87×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 436	$280	0.4%	2	2.3	0.86×
★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 432	$279	0.4%	1	2.3	0.43×
★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 426	$277	0.4%	1	2.4	0.42×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 426	$277	0.4%	6	2.4	2.52×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 426	$277	0.4%	1	2.4	0.42×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · knifes	1 in 425	$276	0.4%	1	2.4	0.42×
★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 417	$273	0.4%	2	2.4	0.82×
★ Talon Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 403	$268	0.4%	2	2.5	0.80×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 402	$267	0.4%	2	2.5	0.79×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 394	$264	0.4%	1	2.6	0.39×
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 393	$264	0.4%	3	2.6	1.16×
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 390	$263	0.4%	5	2.6	1.92×
★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 387	$262	0.4%	2	2.6	0.76×
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 387	$262	0.4%	4	2.6	1.53×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 385	$261	0.4%	0	2.6	0.00×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 383	$260	0.4%	3	2.6	1.14×
★ Flip Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 383	$260	0.4%	2	2.6	0.76×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 381	$259	0.4%	2	2.7	0.75×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 375	$257	0.4%	3	2.7	1.11×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 370	$255	0.4%	2	2.7	0.73×
★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 364	$252	0.4%	1	2.8	0.36×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 360	$250	0.4%	1	2.8	0.36×
★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 348	$245	0.4%	1	2.9	0.34×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 330	$237	0.5%	5	3.1	1.63×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700	1 in 311	$228	0.5%	1	3.3	0.31×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 310	$227	0.5%	0	3.3	0.00×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 308	$226	0.5%	6	3.3	1.83×
★ Talon Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 295	$220	0.5%	3	3.4	0.87×
★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 294	$219	0.5%	3	3.4	0.87×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 293	$218	0.5%	4	3.5	1.16×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 292	$218	0.5%	2	3.5	0.58×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 289	$216	0.5%	1	3.5	0.29×
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 288	$216	0.5%	3	3.5	0.85×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 284	$214	0.5%	6	3.6	1.68×
★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 274	$208	0.5%	4	3.7	1.08×
★ Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 269	$205	0.5%	4	3.8	1.06×
★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 266	$203	0.5%	4	3.8	1.05×
★ Nomad Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 263	$201	0.5%	5	3.8	1.30×
★ Talon Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 262	$201	0.5%	2	3.9	0.52×
★ Talon Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 254	$196	0.5%	6	4.0	1.51×
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 254	$196	0.5%	8	4.0	2.01×
★ Falchion Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 253	$195	0.5%	6	4.0	1.50×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 250	$193	0.5%	4	4.1	0.99×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 249	$192	0.5%	2	4.1	0.49×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 247	$191	0.5%	1	4.1	0.24×
★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 247	$191	0.5%	2	4.1	0.49×
★ Talon Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 246	$190	0.5%	2	4.1	0.49×
★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 245	$189	0.5%	3	4.1	0.73×
★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 240	$186	0.5%	6	4.2	1.42×
★ Falchion Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 236	$184	0.5%	1	4.3	0.23×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 234	$182	0.5%	6	4.3	1.38×
★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 228	$177	0.5%	2	4.4	0.45×
★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 227	$177	0.5%	6	4.5	1.35×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 227	$176	0.5%	0	4.5	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 223	$173	0.5%	4	4.5	0.88×
★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 223	$173	0.5%	6	4.5	1.32×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 220	$171	0.5%	1	4.6	0.22×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 219	$170	0.5%	5	4.6	1.08×
★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 219	$169	0.5%	6	4.6	1.29×
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 216	$167	0.5%	0	4.7	0.00×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 214	$166	0.5%	8	4.7	1.69×
★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 213	$165	0.5%	8	4.7	1.69×
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 211	$163	0.5%	0	4.8	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 209	$161	0.5%	2	4.8	0.41×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 207	$159	0.5%	2	4.9	0.41×
★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 207	$159	0.5%	1	4.9	0.20×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 205	$157	0.5%	8	4.9	1.62×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 204	$156	0.5%	6	5.0	1.21×
★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 204	$156	0.5%	5	5.0	1.01×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 202	$154	0.5%	4	5.0	0.80×
★ Bayonet \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 201	$153	0.5%	6	5.0	1.19×
★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 201	$153	0.5%	8	5.0	1.59×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 199	$150	0.5%	4	5.1	0.79×
★ Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 199	$150	0.5%	4	5.1	0.78×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 198	$150	0.5%	7	5.1	1.37×
★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 197	$148	0.5%	4	5.2	0.78×
★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 196	$148	0.5%	4	5.2	0.78×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 196	$147	0.5%	10	5.2	1.94×
★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 196	$147	0.5%	5	5.2	0.97×
★ Flip Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 195	$146	0.5%	4	5.2	0.77×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Immortal	1 in 194	$145	0.5%	6	5.2	1.15×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 194	$145	0.5%	3	5.2	0.57×
★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 194	$145	0.5%	1	5.2	0.19×
★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 194	$145	0.5%	3	5.2	0.57×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 193	$144	0.5%	5	5.2	0.95×
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 192	$142	0.5%	1	5.3	0.19×
★ Bayonet \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 191	$141	0.5%	7	5.3	1.32×
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 190	$140	0.5%	8	5.3	1.50×
★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 190	$140	0.5%	5	5.3	0.94×
★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 189	$138	0.5%	2	5.4	0.37×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 189	$138	0.5%	5	5.4	0.93×
★ Bayonet \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 187	$135	0.5%	5	5.4	0.92×
★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 187	$135	0.5%	6	5.4	1.11×
★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 186	$134	0.5%	5	5.4	0.92×
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 185	$132	0.5%	9	5.5	1.64×
★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 184	$131	0.4%	7	5.5	1.27×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 184	$131	0.4%	6	5.5	1.09×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 183	$130	0.4%	3	5.5	0.54×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 183	$129	0.4%	1	5.5	0.18×
★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 183	$129	0.4%	4	5.5	0.72×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 182	$127	0.4%	2	5.6	0.36×
★ Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 182	$127	0.4%	3	5.6	0.54×
★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 182	$127	0.4%	2	5.6	0.36×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 181	$125	0.4%	7	5.6	1.25×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 181	$125	0.4%	6	5.6	1.07×
★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 181	$124	0.4%	4	5.6	0.71×
★ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 180	$123	0.4%	4	5.6	0.71×
★ Flip Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 180	$122	0.4%	6	5.6	1.06×
★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 179	$122	0.4%	6	5.6	1.06×
★ Ursus Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 179	$121	0.4%	4	5.7	0.71×
★ Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 179	$120	0.4%	6	5.7	1.06×
★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 179	$120	0.4%	3	5.7	0.53×
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 179	$120	0.4%	11	5.7	1.94×
★ Flip Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 179	$119	0.4%	7	5.7	1.23×
★ Paracord Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 179	$119	0.4%	3	5.7	0.53×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 178	$119	0.4%	3	5.7	0.53×
★ Flip Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 178	$119	0.4%	10	5.7	1.76×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 178	$118	0.4%	4	5.7	0.70×
★ Paracord Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 178	$118	0.4%	6	5.7	1.05×
★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 178	$117	0.4%	3	5.7	0.53×
★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 177	$116	0.4%	8	5.7	1.40×
★ Flip Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 177	$116	0.4%	5	5.7	0.88×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 177	$116	0.4%	8	5.7	1.40×
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 177	$115	0.4%	3	5.7	0.52×
★ Bayonet \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 177	$115	0.4%	5	5.7	0.87×
★ Nomad Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · Immortal	1 in 177	$114	0.4%	7	5.7	1.22×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 177	$114	0.4%	4	5.7	0.70×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 177	$114	0.4%	6	5.7	1.05×
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 177	$114	0.4%	1	5.7	0.17×
★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 177	$114	0.4%	5	5.7	0.87×
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 176	$113	0.4%	8	5.7	1.39×
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 176	$113	0.4%	8	5.7	1.39×
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 176	$110	0.4%	2	5.8	0.35×
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 176	$109	0.4%	5	5.8	0.87×
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$109	0.4%	4	5.8	0.69×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 175	$109	0.4%	3	5.8	0.52×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 175	$109	0.4%	12	5.8	2.08×
★ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 175	$108	0.4%	3	5.8	0.52×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 175	$105	0.4%	7	5.8	1.21×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$104	0.4%	8	5.8	1.38×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$104	0.4%	7	5.8	1.21×
★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 175	$104	0.4%	4	5.8	0.69×
★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · rare	1 in 175	$103	0.4%	1	5.8	0.17×
★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$102	0.4%	3	5.8	0.52×
★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 175	$102	0.4%	4	5.8	0.69×
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 175	$101	0.4%	6	5.8	1.04×
★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 175	$101	0.4%	4	5.8	0.69×
★ Flip Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 175	$100	0.4%	4	5.8	0.69×
★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$99.95	0.4%	5	5.8	0.86×
★ Flip Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 175	$97.12	0.4%	5	5.8	0.86×
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 175	$95.83	0.3%	4	5.8	0.69×
★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 175	$95.59	0.3%	5	5.8	0.86×
★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 175	$95.59	0.3%	5	5.8	0.86×
★ Flip Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 175	$94.97	0.3%	8	5.8	1.38×
★ Flip Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 175	$94.74	0.3%	4	5.8	0.69×
★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 175	$94.23	0.3%	6	5.8	1.04×
★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 176	$93.59	0.3%	9	5.8	1.56×
★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 176	$91.04	0.3%	3	5.7	0.52×
★ Nomad Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · Covert	1 in 177	$89.83	0.3%	9	5.7	1.57×
★ Nomad Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 177	$89.53	0.3%	2	5.7	0.35×
★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 177	$89.02	0.3%	1	5.7	0.17×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 177	$88.22	0.3%	2	5.7	0.35×
★ Falchion Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 177	$87.82	0.3%	2	5.7	0.35×
★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 178	$87.12	0.3%	0	5.7	0.00×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert	1 in 178	$87.06	0.3%	7	5.7	1.23×
★ Classic Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 178	$87.03	0.3%	6	5.7	1.05×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 178	$86.49	0.3%	9	5.7	1.58×
★ Classic Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 178	$85.70	0.3%	1	5.7	0.18×
★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 178	$85.28	0.3%	0	5.7	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 179	$84.45	0.3%	4	5.7	0.71×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 179	$84.15	0.3%	11	5.7	1.94×
★ Falchion Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 179	$83.36	0.3%	4	5.6	0.71×
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 180	$82.56	0.3%	4	5.6	0.71×
★ Falchion Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 180	$82.27	0.3%	7	5.6	1.24×
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 180	$82.07	0.3%	1	5.6	0.18×
★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 181	$80.39	0.3%	4	5.6	0.72×
★ Bowie Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 181	$80.34	0.3%	2	5.6	0.36×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 182	$79.66	0.3%	6	5.6	1.08×
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 182	$79.51	0.3%	7	5.6	1.26×
★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 182	$78.93	0.3%	3	5.6	0.54×
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 182	$78.77	0.3%	5	5.6	0.90×
★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 182	$78.69	0.3%	6	5.6	1.08×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 183	$78.61	0.3%	5	5.5	0.90×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 185	$75.64	0.3%	2	5.5	0.37×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 186	$74.95	0.3%	4	5.5	0.73×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 186	$74.35	0.3%	4	5.4	0.74×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 186	$74.10	0.3%	8	5.4	1.47×
★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 187	$73.36	0.2%	1	5.4	0.18×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 188	$72.24	0.2%	5	5.4	0.93×
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 189	$71.95	0.2%	1	5.4	0.19×
★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 189	$71.89	0.2%	5	5.4	0.93×
★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 189	$71.66	0.2%	3	5.4	0.56×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · #ffd700CUPÃO GUSTINHA$219$1,5987.30x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertinho$219$9684.42x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertClaudioBolaCS$219$8954.09x2d

★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covertGET25$219$8143.72x3d

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · goldrina$219$8113.71x1d

★ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertCUPÃO GUSTINHA$219$8083.69x6d

★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertrina$219$8013.66x1d

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · goldGET25$219$7183.28x23h

★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · goldrina$219$7093.24x1d

★ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertrina$219$6943.17x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertJinada$219$1050.48x4h

★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · goldVLIQ$219$1180.54x9h

★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covertMPC TURN OFF CAPS$219$85.690.39x10h

★ Flip Knife | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covertMPC TURN OFF CAPS$219$1170.53x10h

★ Falchion Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertMPC TURN OFF CAPS$219$1920.88x10h

★ Stiletto Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · covert knifeMPC TURN OFF CAPS$219$1440.66x10h

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covertMPC TURN OFF CAPS$219$1090.50x10h

★ Karambit | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested)knife · covertMPC TURN OFF CAPS$219$3721.70x10h

★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeMPC TURN OFF CAPS$219$86.970.40x11h

★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covertMPC TURN OFF CAPS$219$1980.90x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 72.29%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$219	72.29%	282
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$219	72.13%	281
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$219	72.11%	281
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$219	72.39%	283
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$219	72.70%	283
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$219	72.71%	281
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$219	72.70%	281
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$219	72.76%	282
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$219	72.82%	282
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$219	73.23%	283
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$219	73.20%	283
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$219	73.19%	284
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$219	73.22%	283
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$219	73.22%	284
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$219	73.22%	283
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$219	73.23%	283
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$219	73.20%	285
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$219	73.21%	281
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$219	73.22%	284
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$219	73.22%	286
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$219	73.16%	286
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$219	73.27%	285
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$219	73.61%	284
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$219	73.62%	282
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$219	73.52%	284
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$219	73.23%	283
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$219	73.32%	286
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$219	73.31%	286
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$219	73.32%	284
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$219	73.29%	281

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 4.4%covert 50.8%gold 9.0%#ffd700 2.9%covert knife 21.1%epic 1.4%legendary 0.3%Covert 4.2%knifes 0.2%rare 3.4%Immortal 2.1%best hit $1,598 (7.30x)