USP-S

A case on csgo.net (Battle), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is csgo.net's own item price.

Price

$2.69

Advertised RTP

76.53%

EV $2.06 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

71.91%

5,695 openings, odds method

Variance

0.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

30.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

73.75%±5.73683 openings

7 days

71.77%±2.125,201 openings

30 days

71.91%±2.035,695 openings

since tracking started

71.91%±2.035,695 openings

67.5%73.8%80.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 77.34% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (69.88% – 73.93%, 5,695 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	683	73.75%±5.73	−0.9σ	odds
7d	5,201	71.77%±2.12	−5.1σ	odds
30d	5,695	71.91%±2.03	−5.2σ	odds
All	5,695	71.91%±2.03	−5.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,753 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 176,713	$182	0.1%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 109,846	$98.94	0.0%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 44,357	$60.93	0.1%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 34,981	$55.19	0.1%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 33,028	$53.93	0.1%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20,441	$44.84	0.1%	0	0.3	—
USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 9,323	$33.79	0.2%	1	0.6	—
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,066	$33.46	0.2%	1	0.6	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 7,106	$30.73	0.2%	0	0.8	—
USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,876	$28.76	0.2%	1	1.0	—
USP-S \| Road Rash (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,692	$28.45	0.2%	2	1.0	1.98×
USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 3,184	$23.29	0.4%	1	1.8	0.55×
USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 3,068	$23.00	0.4%	2	1.9	1.07×
USP-S \| Ancient Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 2,975	$22.76	0.4%	3	1.9	1.55×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,755	$18.99	0.5%	2	3.3	0.61×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,590	$18.37	0.6%	7	3.6	1.93×
USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,318	$17.22	0.6%	2	4.4	0.46×
USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 625	$13.32	1.0%	0	9.2	0.00×
USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 142	$7.85	2.7%	0	40.6	0.00×
USP-S \| Para Green (Field-Tested)weapon · 2	1 in 84	$6.43	3.7%	0	68.7	0.00×
USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 83	$6.41	3.7%	41	69.2	0.59×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 29	$4.07	6.9%	123	200.8	0.61×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$3.41	8.2%	358	283.2	1.26×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$3.22	8.5%	393	314.3	1.25×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$3.06	8.8%	455	340.7	1.34×
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$2.66	9.4%	555	420.2	1.32×
USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$2.56	9.6%	291	442.1	0.66×
USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 12	$2.47	9.6%	275	462.0	0.60×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	11.1%	$0.97	5.2%	864	636.9	1.36×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	11.1%	$0.97	5.2%	83	637.2	0.13×
USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	11.0%	$0.95	5.1%	800	634.3	1.26×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	10.3%	$0.82	4.1%	395	592.1	0.67×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	10.1%	$0.79	3.9%	700	579.8	1.21×

Values are csgo.net's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgo-net:pf_case_ranges, 11 Nov, 08:54 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Lead Conduit (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffКИБЕРСПИРТ$2.69$0.970.36x2m

USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetКИБЕРСПИРТ$2.69$2.610.97x2m

USP-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare-=|FaLCoN|=-$2.69$2.731.01x18m

USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec-=|FaLCoN|=-$2.69$3.981.48x18m

USP-S | Lead Conduit (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffVTEC$2.69$0.970.36x21m

USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalVTEC$2.69$1.010.38x22m

USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specVTEC$2.69$0.850.32x23m

USP-S | Lead Conduit (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffVTEC$2.69$0.970.36x29m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalAleky :D$2.69$0.830.31x33m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 76.53%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:54 UTC	$2.69	76.53%	33
11 Nov, 02:44 UTC	$2.69	76.38%	33
10 Nov, 20:44 UTC	$2.69	76.30%	33
10 Nov, 14:44 UTC	$2.69	76.67%	33
10 Nov, 08:34 UTC	$2.69	76.92%	33
10 Nov, 02:24 UTC	$2.69	76.97%	34
9 Nov, 20:24 UTC	$2.69	76.89%	33
9 Nov, 14:24 UTC	$2.69	77.08%	32
9 Nov, 08:24 UTC	$2.69	77.08%	34
9 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$2.69	77.49%	33
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.69	77.50%	33
9 Nov, 00:05 UTC	$2.69	77.46%	34
8 Nov, 18:22 UTC	$2.69	77.54%	33
8 Nov, 12:22 UTC	$2.69	77.54%	33
8 Nov, 06:22 UTC	$2.69	77.51%	32
8 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.69	77.51%	33
7 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.69	77.48%	34
7 Nov, 12:02 UTC	$2.69	77.47%	34
7 Nov, 06:02 UTC	$2.69	77.57%	32
7 Nov, 00:02 UTC	$2.69	77.52%	34
6 Nov, 18:02 UTC	$2.69	77.46%	33
6 Nov, 11:41 UTC	$2.69	77.56%	34
6 Nov, 05:21 UTC	$2.69	77.86%	34
5 Nov, 22:51 UTC	$2.69	77.90%	34
5 Nov, 16:41 UTC	$2.69	77.81%	33
5 Nov, 10:41 UTC	$2.69	77.56%	33
5 Nov, 04:41 UTC	$2.69	77.62%	33
4 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$2.69	77.60%	33
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.69	77.61%	33
4 Nov, 14:19 UTC	$2.69	77.58%	33

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 1.2%classified 10.5%covert 0.0%restricted 6.0%red 0.0%mil spec 13.8%Mythical 21.2%Restricted 0.0%pink 0.1%industrial 0.9%#4b69ff 12.3%violet 7.3%Rare 7.7%blue 8.0%#8847ff 11.0%best hit —