Elder

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$16.12

16.12 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

87.49%

EV $14.10 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

64.47%

19 openings, odds method

Variance

181.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 15

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

84.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

3 openings · below min

7 days

9 openings · below min

30 days

19 openings · below min

since tracking started

19 openings · below min

-0.5%800.0%1600.5%

Small sample. 19 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	3	74.75%±1525.3	—	odds
7d	9	97.46%±880.6	—	odds
30d	19	64.47%±606.1	—	odds
All	19	64.47%±606.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$55.6K 55,565 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.9%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 16,667	$7,830 7,830 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary	1 in 20,000	$7,780 7,780 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$7,150 7,150 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$4,550 4,550 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.2%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$2,525 2,525 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.8%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Desert Hydra (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,667	$1,278 1,278 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$720 720 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,000	$400 400 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 500	$258 258 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.7%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 500	$170 170 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$84.78 84.78 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.0%	0	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 25	$65.90 65.9 CSGOBIG_COIN	18.7%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 33	$41.66 41.66 CSGOBIG_COIN	8.9%	1	0.6	—
Operation Bravo Casecontainer · base	1 in 33	$32.95 32.95 CSGOBIG_COIN	7.0%	2	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$22.35 22.35 CSGOBIG_COIN	4.8%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$15.78 15.78 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 100	$12.35 12.35 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.9%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Gold) \| Rio 2022sticker · #EB4B4B	1 in 100	$6.03 6.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	81.3%	$1.60 1.6 CSGOBIG_COIN	9.2%	15	15.5	0.97×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=10031, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$16.1216.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.601.6 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x4h

Operation Bravo Casecontainer · base$16.1216.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$32.9532.95 CSGOBIG_COIN2.04x4h

AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$16.1216.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.601.6 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x3d

Desert Eagle | Golden Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert$16.1216.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$65.9065.9 CSGOBIG_COIN4.09x3d

AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$16.1216.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.601.6 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x3d

Operation Bravo Casecontainer · base$16.1216.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$32.9532.95 CSGOBIG_COIN2.04x3d

AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted$16.1216.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.601.6 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x3d

AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedPomeleone$16.1216.12 CSGOBIG_COIN$1.601.6 CSGOBIG_COIN0.10x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 87.49%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$16.12	87.49%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 7.5%contraband 0.0%legendary 0.0%restricted 87.4%base 3.0%classified 1.0%#EB4B4B 1.0%best hit —