Blueprint

A case on CSGOBig, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGOBig's own item price converted from csgobig coin at the rate on the site page.

Price

$7.20

7.2 CSGOBIG_COIN

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $6.48 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

51.55%

195 openings, odds method

Variance

402.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 556

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

14 openings · below min

7 days

165 openings · below min

30 days

195 openings · below min

since tracking started

195 openings · below min

-0.5%526.5%1053.5%

Small sample. 195 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14	1.51%±1051.1	—	odds
7d	165	53.89%±306.2	—	odds
30d	195	51.55%±281.6	—	odds
All	195	51.55%±281.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 195 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$11.3K 11,250 CSGOBIG_COIN	17.4%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$7,500 7,500 CSGOBIG_COIN	11.6%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$3,800 3,800 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$1,850 1,850 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.9%	0	0.0	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 5,000	$980 980 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred)gloves · rare	1 in 1,667	$585 585 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,667	$425 425 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$318 318 CSGOBIG_COIN	2.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 1,429	$306 306 CSGOBIG_COIN	3.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$174 174 CSGOBIG_COIN	5.4%	0	0.4	—
Cologne 2016 Overpass Souvenir Packagecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 200	$132 132 CSGOBIG_COIN	10.2%	2	1.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 63	$50.00 50 CSGOBIG_COIN	12.3%	4	3.1	1.28×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 42	$40.73 40.73 CSGOBIG_COIN	15.1%	6	4.7	1.28×
Sticker \| Ocean Sunset Stabbyfishsticker · high	40.0%	$0.18 0.18 CSGOBIG_COIN	1.1%	76	78.0	0.97×
AUG \| Contractor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777	13.8%	$0.03 0.03 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	32	26.8	1.19×
PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9	41.3%	$0.01 0.01 CSGOBIG_COIN	0.1%	75	80.4	0.93×

Values are CSGOBig's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgobig:api/cases/getDetails?id=1009, 11 Nov, 06:29 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Ocean Sunset Stabbyfishsticker · high$7.207.2 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.180.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x4h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$7.207.2 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x4h

Sticker | Ocean Sunset Stabbyfishsticker · high$7.207.2 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.180.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x9h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9$7.207.2 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x9h

Sticker | Ocean Sunset Stabbyfishsticker · high$7.207.2 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.180.18 CSGOBIG_COIN0.02x12h

AUG | Contractor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #777777$7.207.2 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.030.03 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x12h

PP-Bizon Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)other · #B0C3D9Drepound$7.207.2 CSGOBIG_COIN$0.010.01 CSGOBIG_COIN0.00x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
3 Nov, 04:27 UTC	$7.20	90.00%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%rare 0.1%extraordinary 0.3%Base Grade 0.5%Legendary 1.6%Classified 2.4%high 40.0%#777777 13.8%#B0C3D9 41.3%best hit —