Aiden

A case on CSGORoll (partners), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$97.72

140 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $88.84 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.22%

545 openings, odds method

Variance

1.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

50 openings · below min

7 days

78.21%±11.31466 openings

30 days

78.22%±10.46545 openings

since tracking started

78.22%±10.46545 openings

43.0%78.3%113.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.94% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (67.75% – 88.68%, 545 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	50	78.19%±34.4	—	odds
7d	466	78.21%±11.3	−2.2σ	odds
30d	545	78.22%±10.5	−2.4σ	odds
All	545	78.22%±10.5	−2.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 545 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$6,188 8,840 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Medusa (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20,000	$4,946 7,065 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 10,000	$1,544 2,206 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,250	$1,081 1,544 coins	1.0%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$1,051 1,502 coins	0.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 1,000	$1,033 1,475 coins	1.2%	1	0.5	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 667	$595 850 coins	1.0%	0	0.8	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 333	$563 804 coins	1.9%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 200	$467 667 coins	2.6%	3	2.7	1.10×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 111	$460 657 coins	4.7%	3	4.9	0.61×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,111	$454 649 coins	0.5%	2	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 154	$302 432 coins	2.2%	6	3.5	1.69×
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 100	$274 392 coins	3.1%	4	5.5	0.73×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 38	$265 378 coins	7.7%	13	14.2	0.92×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 12	$237 339 coins	21.8%	31	44.5	0.70×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 45	$228 326 coins	5.7%	9	12.0	0.75×
Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$197 281 coins	11.1%	26	27.3	0.95×
★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 40	$151 215 coins	4.2%	16	13.6	1.17×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 36	$105 150 coins	3.3%	16	15.3	1.05×
P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified	15.0%	$91.00 130 coins	15.4%	75	81.8	0.92×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 34	$84.00 120 coins	2.7%	14	15.8	0.89×
★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	15.0%	$52.51 75.02 coins	8.9%	75	81.8	0.92×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	40.0%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	251	218.0	1.15×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls (Factory New)gloves · legendary$98.34140 coins$1,0931,561 coins11.11x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$97.72140 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x28m

★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert$97.72140 coins$52.5175.02 coins0.54x1h

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$97.72140 coins$237339 coins2.43x1h

★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covertKlass 2$97.72140 coins$52.5175.02 coins0.54x4h

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$97.72140 coins$237339 coins2.43x4h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$97.72140 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x5h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerBaduci$97.72140 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x6h

P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified$97.72140 coins$91.00130 coins0.93x6h

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$97.72140 coins$237339 coins2.43x6h

Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$97.72140 coins$197281 coins2.01x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$97.72	90.91%	23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$98.39	90.91%	23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$98.34	90.91%	23

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 37.0%legendary 0.1%classified 20.0%extraordinary 2.9%consumer 40.0%best hit $1,093 (11.11x)