Blue Skies
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$71.51
102 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $65.01 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.70%
308 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 308 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covertHodenAmBoden$72.49104 coins$7381,054 coins10.18x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $71.51 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $72.25 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $72.49 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 18.1%restricted 15.5%classified 21.0%industrial 10.0%mil spec 35.4%best hit $738 (10.18x)