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ChickenDinner v2

A case on CSGORoll (partners, 20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$46.87
66.96 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $42.61 from 23 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.02%
5,153 openings, odds method
Variance
16.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 40
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
65.86%±46.26287 openings
7 days
87.56%±12.244,224 openings
30 days
88.02%±11.095,153 openings
since tracking started
88.02%±11.095,153 openings
19.0%66.0%113.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h28765.86%±46.3−1.1σodds
7d4,22487.56%±12.2−0.5σodds
30d5,15388.02%±11.1−0.5σodds
All5,15388.02%±11.1−0.5σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,153 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Karambit | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald1 in 10,000$6,465 9,235 coins1.5%00.5—
★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary1 in 10,000$6,269 8,955 coins1.5%00.5—
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,000$2,716 3,880 coins6.4%35.20.58×
MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 500$1,949 2,785 coins9.2%1110.31.07×
AK-47 | Hydroponic (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 500$1,369 1,955 coins6.4%1710.31.65×
StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 500$856 1,223 coins4.0%1110.31.07×
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire1 in 500$816 1,166 coins3.8%1110.31.07×
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 400$754 1,077 coins4.4%1512.91.16×
AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 286$532 760 coins4.4%1418.00.78×
M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 500$474 677 coins2.2%1010.30.97×
Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 500$402 574 coins1.9%710.30.68×
Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 182$378 540 coins4.9%2828.30.99×
CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 147$348 497 coins5.6%3435.00.97×
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 143$286 409 coins4.7%3236.10.89×
Five-SeveN | Fall Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 40$188 269 coins11.0%113128.80.88×
MAG-7 | Counter Terrace (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 125$105 150 coins2.0%3441.20.82×
P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 43$91.00 130 coins5.0%137121.11.13×
Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted1 in 20$90.30 129 coins10.6%240257.70.93×
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 33$84.00 120 coins5.9%153154.60.99×
UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 40$78.40 112 coins4.6%143128.81.11×
FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer25.0%$0.01 0.02 coins0.0%1,3091288.31.02×
Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer25.0%$0.01 0.02 coins0.0%1,2621288.30.98×
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer30.0%$0.01 0.02 coins0.0%1,5691545.91.01×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$46.9967.13 coins$2,8044,005 coins59.66x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$46.8766.96 coins$2,7163,880 coins57.95x
★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$46.8766.96 coins$2,7163,880 coins57.95x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$46.8766.96 coins$1,9492,785 coins41.59x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$46.9967.13 coins$1,9492,785 coins41.49x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$46.9967.13 coins$1,9492,785 coins41.49x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$46.9967.13 coins$1,9492,785 coins41.49x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedmikeoochi$46.9967.13 coins$1,9492,785 coins41.49x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$46.9967.13 coins$1,9492,785 coins41.49x
MP9 | Wild Lily (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$46.9967.13 coins$1,9492,785 coins41.49x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
FAMAS | Colony (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$46.8766.96 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$46.8766.96 coins$90.30129 coins1.93x
StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertChrasťoušekS$46.8766.96 coins$7541,077 coins16.08x
Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$46.8766.96 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$46.8766.96 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$46.8766.96 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested)weapon · consumertiltedfish$46.8766.96 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$46.8766.96 coins$90.30129 coins1.93x
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$46.8766.96 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$46.8766.96 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$46.8790.91%23
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$46.7390.91%23
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$46.9990.91%23
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.7%extraordinary 0.1%classified 8.6%restricted 6.2%mil spec 3.3%consumer 80.0%best hit $2,804 (59.66x)