Coral
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$309.15
442 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $281.04 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.78%
120 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 120 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4User#878$309442 coins$1,6162,308 coins5.23x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$312446 coins$1,1421,632 coins3.66x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2I AM THE PIRATE KING$309442 coins$1,1081,583 coins3.58x
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$309442 coins$1,1081,583 coins3.58x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertRusty Cake$309442 coins$45.1564.5 coins0.15x
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireEminescu$309442 coins$291415 coins0.94x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Factory New)weapon · classifiedMrmccola2$309442 coins$84.00120 coins0.27x
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireThe other other guy$309442 coins$291415 coins0.94x
★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinaryEminescu$309442 coins$70.70101 coins0.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $309 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $307 | 90.91% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $312 | 90.91% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 47.5%high 0.8%legendary 0.4%extraordinary 19.2%remarkable 1.8%classified 30.3%best hit $2,832 (9.06x)