Dante
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,460.68
2,087 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $1,327.89 from 30 items
Observed RTP, 30d
55.11%
16 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 16 openings and 2.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$1,4672,095 coins$2,1703,100 coins1.48x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4672,095 coins$1,3521,931 coins0.92x
Souvenir AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · covert$1,4672,095 coins$1,3521,931 coins0.92x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covertFslayer90$1,4672,095 coins$174249 coins0.12x
★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$1,4672,095 coins$2,1703,100 coins1.48x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1,461 | 90.91% | 30 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,467 | 90.91% | 30 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.9%extraordinary 0.0%remarkable 0.0%covert 69.8%contraband 3.3%high 7.0%epic 3.0%rare 15.0%best hit $4,007 (2.73x)