Glockatron

A case on CSGORoll (pistols), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$17.40
24.85 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $15.81 from 21 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.64%
2,399 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.5%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
98.23%±21.40271 openings
7 days
87.87%±7.872,008 openings
30 days
87.64%±7.202,399 openings
since tracking started
87.64%±7.202,399 openings
76.0%98.3%120.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h27198.23%±21.4+0.7σodds
7d2,00887.87%±7.87−0.8σodds
30d2,39987.64%±7.20−0.9σodds
All2,39987.64%±7.20−0.9σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,399 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$1,165 1,664 coins0.7%00.2—
Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 2,000$402 574 coins1.3%31.22.50×
Glock-18 | Emerald (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 2,000$317 453 coins1.0%11.20.83×
Glock-18 | Synth Leaf (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,111$293 418 coins1.7%22.20.93×
Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 1,000$197 281 coins1.2%22.40.83×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 500$186 265 coins2.3%44.80.83×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 33$98.70 141 coins18.7%6072.00.83×
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)weapon · covert · Phase 11 in 200$70.70 101 coins2.2%1812.01.50×
Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 333$69.05 98.65 coins1.3%67.20.83×
Glock-18 | Groundwater (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 133$65.65 93.78 coins3.1%1618.00.89×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 14$64.83 92.61 coins28.7%167167.90.99×
Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Well-Worn) (Phase 4)weapon · covert · Phase 41 in 100$61.58 87.97 coins3.9%2524.01.04×
Glock-18 | Brass (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 400$42.74 61.06 coins0.7%46.00.67×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 500$42.06 60.08 coins0.5%34.80.63×
Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Factory New)weapon · rare1 in 11$19.29 27.55 coins11.0%197215.90.91×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified10.0%$18.54 26.48 coins11.7%241239.91.00×
Souvenir Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec1 in 667$15.30 21.85 coins0.1%33.60.83×
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary15.0%$4.35 6.21 coins4.1%360359.81.00×
Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)weapon · rare12.3%$2.58 3.68 coins2.0%292296.30.99×
Glock-18 | Red Tire (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial17.0%$1.72 2.45 coins1.8%430407.81.05×
Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restricted23.0%$1.19 1.7 coins1.7%565551.81.02×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

Glock-18 | Red Tire (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialdropix$17.4024.85 coins$1.722.45 coins0.10x
Glock-18 | Shinobu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary$17.4024.85 coins$4.356.21 coins0.25x
Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)weapon · rare$17.4024.85 coins$2.583.68 coins0.15x
Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)weapon · restricted$17.4024.85 coins$1.191.7 coins0.07x
Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Factory New)weapon · rare$17.4024.85 coins$19.2927.55 coins1.11x
Glock-18 | Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$17.4024.85 coins$197281 coins11.31x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC$17.4090.91%21
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$17.4090.93%21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$17.6790.90%21
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC$18.0090.91%21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$18.0090.92%21
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 23.9%classified 10.2%covert 11.6%industrial 17.8%rare 21.6%mil spec 0.1%Legendary 15.0%best hit —