Industrial

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$48.80

69.71 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $44.36 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

107.42%

145 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

48 openings · below min

7 days

110.13%±21.63139 openings

30 days

107.42%±21.17145 openings

since tracking started

107.42%±21.17145 openings

48.5%90.5%132.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	48	86.17%±36.8	—	odds
7d	139	110.13%±21.6	+1.7σ	odds
30d	145	107.42%±21.2	+1.5σ	odds
All	145	107.42%±21.2	+1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 145 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$1,407 2,010 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$1,229 1,755 coins	1.4%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 250	$396 565 coins	3.6%	0	0.6	—
★ Flip Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 200	$291 416 coins	3.3%	1	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$283 404 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$262 374 coins	8.9%	0	2.2	0.00×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$174 249 coins	3.9%	0	1.4	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$159 227 coins	10.7%	7	4.3	1.61×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 500	$143 204 coins	0.6%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$102 145 coins	11.4%	9	7.3	1.24×
Sawed-Off \| Copper (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$95.90 137 coins	10.8%	12	7.3	1.66×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20	$79.10 113 coins	8.9%	7	7.3	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$46.28 66.11 coins	6.3%	9	8.7	1.03×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	12.0%	$40.87 58.38 coins	11.1%	18	17.4	1.03×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$35.29 50.41 coins	5.6%	10	10.2	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 11	$24.22 34.6 coins	4.9%	9	13.0	0.69×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	14.0%	$12.24 17.48 coins	3.9%	20	20.3	0.99×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	15.0%	$7.54 10.77 coins	2.5%	23	21.8	1.06×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	15.2%	$3.70 5.29 coins	1.3%	18	22.1	0.81×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$49.0870.11 coins$1,2151,735 coins24.75x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$48.8069.71 coins$79.10113 coins1.62x2h

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$48.8069.71 coins$46.2866.11 coins0.95x2h

M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$48.8069.71 coins$24.2234.6 coins0.50x2h

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$48.8069.71 coins$46.2866.11 coins0.95x2h

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$48.8069.71 coins$7.5410.77 coins0.15x2h

Sawed-Off | Copper (Factory New)weapon · mil specaBbe$48.8069.71 coins$95.90137 coins1.97x2h

M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$48.8069.71 coins$79.10113 coins1.62x3h

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$48.8069.71 coins$7.5410.77 coins0.15x3h

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$48.8069.71 coins$40.8758.38 coins0.84x3h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$48.8069.71 coins$35.2950.41 coins0.72x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$48.80	90.91%	19
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$48.99	90.91%	19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$49.08	90.91%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.2%covert 28.0%restricted 1.5%mil spec 17.0%classified 53.2%best hit $1,215 (24.75x)