Manipulation
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$253.75
363 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $230.68 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
75.03%
200 openings, odds method
Variance
10.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 200 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$256366 coins$1,3501,928 coins5.27x
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl$256366 coins$1,3501,928 coins5.27x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $254 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $254 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $254 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $256 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $256 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 14.0%high 1.0%consumer 43.0%classified 21.0%restricted 21.0%best hit $3,143 (12.27x)